Dine Brands Global, Inc. (NYSE:DIN) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Jay Johns: Thanks for the question, Brian. Clearly, you just listened to the numbers of answers, told you, we are a little higher than even our sister brand as far as what our franchisees took in the way of pricing this past year. I do think that, you implied that is not sustainable. I would tend to agree with you in that at those kind of numbers, people aren’t going to keep doing 7% or 10% pricing in perpetuity, right? And we have already seen our own franchisees drop that considerably. The last menu prints we did toward the end of last year, much lower increases than that. But remember these are annualized numbers when you look at what they have already taken at other menu prints earlier in the year that is still kind of in the number.

I think that those will start to roll off as we get a little further down the path. I’m less concerned about those kind of increases as we move forward, at least at this moment, just looking at the trends of what I saw on the last menu increase that they did. I think that will start to stabilize itself.

Brian Vaccaro: I appreciate that. I know pricing decisions are up to your franchisees, but what is a reasonable expectation? Just ballpark for how much pricing might be in, or average check might be in the Applebee’s and IHOP systems in 2024.

John Peyton: Jay, you want to continue and then we will go to Tony?

Jay Johns: Yes, that is fine. I think that as we look forward, we have got another menu coming up here in the spring, and then there will be one in the fall is the way it is scheduled at the moment. They haven’t made all their final determinations on what those prices are going to be, and those menus are not out yet. I can’t give you any kind of forward looking as far as what they are going to do. I just see their behaviors of what they did this past fall. One of the things we have done on the IHOP side of the business, we actually engage with RMS, a Revenue Management Solutions company. That is probably the biggest in the industry that helps a lot of companies do this. They are helping our franchisees, giving them some guidance is to where is the optimal prices and what is price sensitive, what isn’t, where should be careful.

And they are getting some good guidance on this now. Clearly, they get to make their own decisions and they are the final decision maker on price, but they are getting some very good scientific how to protect traffic and how to also make sure that they are optimizing their EBITDA at the same time too. They are getting some really good advice now, I think. We look forward to that as we go into this year too.

Tony Moralejo: Yes, and look, I will just add along the same lines. Our franchisees took about 2.7% in pricing in Q4, which was down from, I believe 4%in Q3. And I can’t give you a number to guide in your model. But as a reference point, our franchisees are very strategic and measured when it comes to pricing decisions that they make. And they have consistently recently have priced below their peers. So, if you look at the food away from home increased data that would probably serve as a potential guide. Again, the decisions are up to the franchisees, but they have been pretty consistent in staying at or below what the peers have taken in pricing in the category.

Brian Vaccaro: Alright, that is very helpful. And then just last one from me if I could. Moving on to the franchisee margins, Vance, appreciate the color you gave on the food and the labor margins kind of compared to 2019. Could you take that, maybe round that out to the bottom line to store level EBITDA, either dollars or margins. Give us a sense where each brand is compared to 2019 on that.

Vance Chang: Yes, so you know, I probably won’t get into the specifics of those are not our financials, but based on what I have seen from what the franchisees have shared with us, both systems are in good shape, right? We talked about the headwinds and the tailwinds. The headwinds being labor costs remain elevated but stabilizing. And then, and, but the labor cost is a percent of sales is trending back towards pre-COVID level through food cost is commodity cost easing. So that is a good thing. We talked about the restaurant initiatives, the profitability initiatives with $50 million of annualized savings. So that is a tailwind as well. So all of this is in the context of the sort of uncertain macroeconomic environment, but as a whole, systems are performing and, you know, and this is of course, this is Q we always have a quarter lag, right? So I’m looking at Q3 financials right now for the franchisees.

Brian Vaccaro: Alright, thank you. I will pass it along.

Operator: Thank you. That now concludes our Q&A portion. I would now like to turn the conference back to John Peyton, Dine Brand’s CEO for closing remarks.

John Peyton: Thanks Gerald, our favorite operator. We love when you are with us, you took good care of us. Thanks. Thanks guys for joining us on the call this morning, we are excited for 2024. We are confident in our plans. We are excited to share our guidance around our EBITDA build year-over-year. We are excited about the new plan that, we just let you know about with the Flynn Group for 25 new restaurants. And we are excited about our brands. And we are excited about our brands that have compelling and exciting promotions. So thanks everyone and we will talk to you next quarter.

Operator: Thank you. This now concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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