DexCom, Inc. (NASDAQ:DXCM) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator: And we will take our next question from Mathew Blackman with Stifel.

Mathew Blackman: Oh, great. Appreciate you taking my question. And maybe for Kevin and Jereme, you obviously mentioned Salesforce and the PCP channel. Can you just remind us at least today what kind of PCP, Salesforce coverage you have? And then more importantly, sort of leaning into your comments, Kevin, about investing incrementally in that channel this year. What does that mean in terms of spend magnitude, spend timing? And how much more coverage you’re expecting to add with these investments or any other way to frame what you’re trying to accomplish? Thank you.

Jereme Sylvain: Yes. So thanks for the question, Matt. So you think about the investment, we are going to expand that Salesforce. And today we have a good amount of coverage. It’s tens of thousands of primary care physicians and predominantly the entirety of the endocrinologist space. But as you start to think about basal coverage expanding, the opportunity ahead of us certainly Stelo out on the horizon. We found there was an opportunity to continue to expand. And as we know, CGM, specifically Dexcom CGM can play a very important role in how folks manage their diabetes. We know that having those call points is helpful. So we are going to expand it. You can take a look at LinkedIn for the amount. There are quite a few openings out there in terms of the size of it.

So we’ll expand our salesforce and we will get more coverage. In terms of the cadence, the LinkedIn wrecks are out there right now. So you’ll see us hire over the course of the first quarter. Obviously, then the fully loaded burden associated with those reps will take place over the back half of the year. So Q2s through Q4. So that’s how to think about the cadence of that. But again, that’s all contemplated in the overall guidance we’ve provided, the 20% operating margin. So expect it as part of typical work that we do around creating leverage in the business and investing where we need to. But if you’re thinking about it for a cadence over the course of the year, expect the hires to be made over the course of the first quarter. And then for folks to ramp up and be part of our run, really Q2 through the balance of the year.

Operator: And we will take our next question from Marie Thibault with BTIG.

Marie Thibault: Thanks. Good evening. Thanks for taking the questions. I wanted to ask a question here on international. I think you’ve reminded us that you’ll be selling a non-CGM business in Australia and also going direct in Japan. I wanted to understand the cadence for Q1 versus the rest of the year. And also any sort of comments you could make on G7 being on the Dexcom ONE platform, just an all-around international question there.

Jereme Sylvain: Sure. Thanks, Marie. And we’ll give you some context. So the non-CGM business, that effectively is gone at this point. So that’s why we’ve been comfortable pulling it out and talking about it to organic. So this quarter you can expect, we talked about the $30-ish million last year. The math on that, you can kind of do the allocation by quarter. That’s out as of this point, for the most part. And so think about that in the quarter. Japan, certainly a similar type thing. We talked about it in Q4 being effectively nil. I’d expect a similar contribution in the first quarter. And then as we start to take that book of business so that business live in the second quarter, I expect it to start to contribute as we build that business back up over the course of the year.

So those are really the international kind of timing. So Q1 will be the heaviest burden in terms of as we transition through that. As it pertains to Dexcom ONE on G7, great news is, I think we press release it a couple days ago, four countries have launched. And so that has come out, it is now out there today. Those four countries are our first foray and we’re getting great feedback from early adopters within those countries. The expectation is we have a cadence of launches of Dexcom ONE on a G7 form factor, really over the course of the year. So I’d expect a lot more press releases around where and when we’re launching that, but expect that to really take place over the course of the year, which gives us a lot of confidence again in Dexcom ONE being a really incredible growth driver for the long term.

Operator: We will take our next question from Jeff Johnson with Baird.

Jeff Johnson: Hey, guys. Good afternoon. Maybe I’ll just keep it on that international point. I think this is the first quarter in a while we’ve seen international growth below the US growth. And if I look back the last few quarters, I think you’ve gone 40, 30, 23 here on the organic growth rate. Just help us understand kind of where that international versus US growth might settle out here in 2024. Would we expect them to be similar to each other? Does international continue to slow for any reason? And as I think about some of the competitive AID approvals that have happened over in Europe, especially with one year with a competitive CGM. Just how are you thinking about the stability of your maybe installed base on the AID side over there versus win rate for new AID systems there? Thank you.

Jereme Sylvain: Okay, thanks, Jeff. So as you think about the cadence, so thanks to the question on international, as you think about the cadence over the course of the year, certainly Q4 was buoyed by a few different or weighed down, I guess, and say by a few different things. We talked a little bit about earlier about the Japan business and really the revenues were effectively nil as we make that transition. And so that’s a negative grower in the quarter. And then, the non-diabetes business is was really a flat. And so when you think about the business being historically a pretty significant grower, those pull you down as you start to exclude those things, we are still growing quite well. In fact, all of the core businesses where we operate today, UK, Germany, Australia, et cetera, all continue to grow relatively consistently between Q2, Q3, Q4.

There are some ebbs and flows, but for the most part, those all should do well. So then you think about what does that mean going forward? We haven’t changed our stance that the o-US business, the international business, as a percentage of revenue by the end of 2025 will be bigger than it is today. And about two thirds, one third, or that split today is more like 70:30 or 72:28. So I think on the whole, expect the international business with all of the opportunity out there with certainly the under penetration we have today to grow faster than that of the US business over the coming. That’s not to say that we’re not incredibly bullish on the U.S. business. Look, if we can outperform on both of those, we’ll do the work on both. But at least that’s in our LRP.

As you think about competitive systems and AID, we are highly confident in what we have to offer. Our product there’s multiple different reasons why we believe our product is special in that space. Kevin alluded to a little bit about it earlier around Bluetooth connectivity as one. I’ll just give you an example there. Someone can be on a pump can talk to their phone and can be on a direct-to-watch application all while on our product. No one else can offer that. We are the only one that can do that. And as you think about this population which really needs and deserves quite frankly the technology to manage their diabetes, we believe that that is a differentiator and a meaningful differentiator going forward. Add to that the many and many of years that we’re compiling on these systems.

We feel highly confident that when we sit in front of a physician, and we sit in front of an endocrinologist and we sit in front of a parent a child that needs an AID system we feel confident that we are the choice. We’ll continue to battle and make sure that that message continues to go out there but as we think about that international book of business, we continue to feel very confident even post-launch of a competitive system we’ll do incredibly well there.

Operator: And we will take our next question from Matt Taylor with Jefferies.

Matt Taylor: Hi, thanks for taking the question. I was hoping you could update us on the cadence of data that we could expect to see this year not only around you mentioned before GLP-1 data that could come from you or from investigators and then also on Stelo. Are we going to see anything on that at upcoming conferences or from you before during or after the launch?

Kevin Sayer: Now this Kevin I’ll take that we don’t really, we don’t need a clinical trial for Stelo as far as getting that product approved. There is a lot of data on use of continuous glucose monitoring, particularly Dexcom systems in this type 2 diabetes world that will be published by investigators over the course of the next several months, and we’ll reference to that and we’ll talk to you about that. We know, we have a very good idea where this data comes out because we’ve seen in all our studies, patients have better outcomes, they’re healthier, we end up saving the system money, and those are the outcomes that we’re hoping to drive with Stelo over time. With respect to GLP-1s, again, the list of studies ongoing is very large, and there are studies where CGM is an element.

Again, we expect those studies when they’re published to demonstrate the same things that we’ve talked about before, that the use of the CGM with the GLP-1 provides a better result than a study without it, and those studies we’ve published over time, we don’t control those investigators, but we expect good data over the course of the year.