Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Glen Hauenstein: Well, I think Jamie, you’ve got a couple of contributors to it. One is what Ed just mentioned, the improving conditions in the corporate environment. And it’s been a slow and steady rebuild since the end of the pandemic. But we are at post-pandemic highs somewhere right around 90% restored to pre-pandemic levels as we head into this year. So that I think is an exciting backdrop for a domestic turnaround. Of course, we have some of the rationalization of capacity, but we also have continued improvements in segmentation and pricing. I can’t talk to our competitors. I just know how we are working now. And 20 years ago, we were only compare – only worried about the lowest fares in the market, and now we’re worried about the entire ladder and the relativity within those ladders and trying to get people to experience the higher quality products.

And I think that’s really led to our ability to continue to segment the customers in a more enlightened way moving forward. And that’s going to be one of the key drivers as we head through this year.

Jamie Baker: Okay. I appreciate that. And then a second question for Ed, during your interview with Phil this morning, you mentioned you’re still holding out hope for the $7 earnings outcome this year. If we fast forward to a year from today, give or take, and that indeed has been the outcome, what do you think the primary driver will have been? I guess the better way to ask is, do you think there’s upside based on what Delta can control, or do you think it’ll simply be exogenous factors like, hey, fuel cooperated, or, I don’t know, maybe the consumer leaned even further into premium, that that sort of thing?

Ed Bastian: Sure. Thanks, Jamie. I get the question. I think the level of volatility that we see is what causes us to be a bit cautious and prudent in giving that $6 to $7 EPS guide in 2024. We’ve been signaling that a bit for the last six months, and that’s where we sit today. I have great confidence in us hitting that guide, which is what I think the Street wants to know, where our confidence level is. There are a bunch of macros that we look at into the year, which we’ll have to see how they play out. Clearly, the geopolitical front continues to be quite testy, including the fact that this is a political election season, not just in the U.S., but around the world. Energy prices, we saw this morning just how volatile energy prices are.

And to me, the supply chain both the cost and the constraints that we see in this industry continue unabated. We’re not making nearly the progress on the supply chain improvements if anything. Every news we get seems to be a bit worse, not better. So that constrains growth and increased cost. That all said, my internal stretch for myself and our team is to still get to that $7 number this year. I think we have a possibility to get there, but I also think that the macro weighs on that assessment. And I think to be prudent, we should set expectations maybe a little bit lower and hope to overachieve just by the way we did in 2023. We gave a $5 to $6 guide and came in on the top end. And I’d like to see a year from now that we’re reporting that same type of result.

Jamie Baker: Glen and Ed, thank you very much for taking my questions. Take care.

Ed Bastian: Okay. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Conor Cunningham from Melius Research. Your line is live.

Conor Cunningham: Everyone, thank you. Just on the regions in general, you obviously sound more constructive domestically, but I think you mentioned that you still see a fair bit of upside in terms of international. If you could just level set on your overall like regional expectations in 2024, I think that would be helpful. Thank you.

Ed Bastian: Well, I think we’re expecting domestic to continue to improve, the comps gets easier as we move through the year. So we should see some nice momentum there. We had a fantastic year in the Transatlantic. We’re hoping to beat that, but there’s a really high bar as we move through the year. What we have on the books today is really pretty exciting for the month of April, where we have about 40% of our Transatlantic bookings in place. We have unit revenue sitting at high-single digits up, which I think most people wouldn’t expect. Of course, we have a lot of booking to go there, but the early returns for spring and summer are very favorable as we sit today. Pacific, where we have an incredible amount of capacity, it’s being absorbed nicely, and we expect that to inflect into a positive territory as those growth rates come down, we move through the year.

And last but not least, Latin, and our ambitious build of South America with our partners LATAM is paying very good strong dividends. We’re improving our profitability, albeit, at lower unit revenue. So I think we’re very excited about where South America sits. And the beaches this winter seem a little oversaturated that will rationalize itself out as we move through the year.

Conor Cunningham: Appreciate that. And then Dan, on 2024 costs, I was hoping if you could provide some thought just on the shape of the cost trajectory. It seems like a lot of it just has to do with timing of maintenance and really, really that type of stuff. So just any color, additional color there could be helpful. Thank you.