Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Ravi Shanker: Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Scott Group from Wolfe Research. Your line is live.

Scott Group: Hey. Thanks. Good morning. Glen, if I look at the RASM guide for Q1, down about 6% just in absolute terms from Q4, so that’s worse than normal Q4 to Q1 seasonality. Any color on that and then when do we really start to see this hub tailwinds show up in RASM?

Glen Hauenstein: Right. Well, quarter-over-quarter, we had a 2-point increase in domestic stage. So, and that again is unique to Delta and we think that’s about 1 point of pressure from the 19 down to the 16. There’s another international mix, length of haul changing internationally as well. So that’s another point. And so then we are thinking about this as really being sequentially about 1 point difference to get from a 91% restoration all the way up to 99% restoration. So our core — for core same-store sales, we are actually seeing first quarter being stronger than fourth quarter and with that sequential improvement from February being better than January and March being better than February. So I think we are sitting in a pretty exciting place right now as we look at how 2023 is starting.

Ed Bastian: Then the rebuild of the core.

Glen Hauenstein: The rebuild of the core, we wish we could do it sooner. Again, I think, our priority has been to make sure that we can sustain industry leading operations and so that’s going to work throughout the year. I think when we talked about it at the Investor Day, we didn’t really give you color that this is not a first quarter event. While there’s some rebuild domestically in the core, the major rebuilds we expect, for example, Atlanta, which was about 85% last year in terms of seats to be close to 95% by summer and then 100% by fall with Minneapolis close to Atlanta and then Detroit a little bit behind. So we are working on that, that’s our priority and we will get there we believe by fall, but it really doesn’t impact significantly the first quarter’s core.

Scott Group: Okay. And then just for Dan, just help bridge us from CASM up 3% to 4% in Q1 to down 2% to 4% for the year? You mentioned maintenance, how much does that hurt Q1, how much has that then helped the back half, any color here? Thank you.

Dan Janki: Yeah. Certainly. There’s two pieces in there. Maintenance being one, it’s about a 2-point headwind in the first quarter and first half and it’s driven by engine induction levels and scope of work related to that. As you get into the back half of the year, that’s a 2-point to 3-point benefit year-over-year, so a 5-point progression from beginning to end. And then the second piece of that is related to the completion of our rebuild and those rebuild costs stepping down. Most of our rebuild over 85% of that cost is in the first half of the year. You don’t have that in the back half of the year. And as Glen just talked about, one of the enablers that efficiency is, as we restore the core hubs, these low-cost subs, low CP most cost competitive as we put that capacity and that drives efficiency of our assets and our workforce.

That is 5 points. So the 5 points related to that and the 5 points related to maintenance is 10-point progression as you go through the year from the beginning to the end and that drives that continuous cadence improvement as you go through the quarters.

Scott Group: Helpful. Thank you, guys.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies. Your line is live.

Sheila Kahyaoglu: Thank you, and good morning, everyone. First, I wanted to maybe ask about just profitability levels. You finished the year with 8% margins and are guiding to Q1 with 4% to 6%, and given the full year guide, how do we think about margin progression throughout the year?

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