Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Brent Norwood: Yes. Good morning, Dillon, thanks for the question. With respect to this particular cycle, I think there is a lot of variables at play. First off, we’ve had a really strong start to the year. And our guidance would indicate we’re going to have a very strong rest of year as well. We note the backdrop right now is very supportive. Farmer fundamentals are really strong. And we had a record year in 2022. But as we look at 2023, it’s going to be a slight decline, but still at a very, very positive level. cash receipts are down 3%, farmer net income is down 16%, but both of those figures would be higher than the peak of any prior cycle. So right now, I think our farmers are in really good shape. I think another thing to contemplate with respect to this particular cycle is the way that it really unfolded has been at a slower pace than what the market would typically facilitate.

We saw demand inflect in early 2021, but the industry was suffering from significant supply constraints over that year €˜22 and in €˜23. We are still shorting demand on some level in €˜23 and much of that or some of that will certainly push into subsequent years. So this cycle is difficult to compare to prior cycles because of some of these artificial and external constraints that are placed on the business. Now with respect to 2024, certainly, too early to make a call there, there is a lot of variables between now and then we have the 2023 crop. We want to see where ag inputs normalize, things like fertilizer, seed and chemicals have been somewhat volatile in their pricing over the last couple of €“ or last year or so. And we’ve got a number of swing exporters, I would say, when you contemplate areas like the Black Sea region as well as Argentina.

So a lot of variables need to play out and we will start to collect our first data point on next year really this summer, when we run our crop care early order program, we will collect some additional data points in the fall with our combine early order program. That said, how we intend to exit 23, we think we will exit at a really healthy rate. The fleet age will still be advanced. And inventories, both new and used are going to continue to be tight.

Josh Jepsen: Yes. Dillon, maybe one thing I would add here, and this gets back to our strategy and I think how we are a fundamentally different company in terms of what we’re delivering to customers, how we’re integrating technology to drive value for customers, really irrespective of where end markets are, the ability to take cost out and to increase productivity and profitability for customers. So we’re very, very focused on our ability to dampen cyclicality over time, be less reliant on sheer unit volume as we drive better economics for our customers and better per unit economics for Deere. So we feel really good about the opportunity to drive growth and our ability to create value for customers. Thanks, Dillon. We will go to our next question.

Dillon Cumming: Appreciate it.

Operator: Our next question will come from John Joyner with BMO Capital Markets. Go ahead please. Your line is open.

John Joyner: Great. So thank you very much. Josh, you’ve discussed this a bit, and I know my question here comes up a lot, so I do apologize in advance. But how do you think about pricing power, I guess, when the currently robust up cycle eventually moderates? Or are prices now possibly set at a €“ what could be a structurally higher level?

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