Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (NYSE:CTOS) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Nicole DeBlase: Can we just talk a little bit about your expectations for TES backlog? Makes sense that it ticked down since supply chain is normalizing. I guess is your expectation that you could possibly exit 2024 with a more normalized lead time and amount of backlog, or do you think that backlog will remain elevated based on what you’re seeing in the supply chain?

Ryan McMonagle: That’s a great question. Look, we delivered almost over $200 million of additional revenue on the TES segment this year. So the fact that backlog really year-on-year just came down, what about $60 million, $65 million. We’re really happy with that. So we are still seeing very good order volume. And so I think that will continue. But I wouldn’t be surprised if backlog still comes down a bit. We said — I’ve said historically that four to six months is where it has been historically. I don’t know that I have a reason to think it will be all the way down to that by the end of the year. But we’re still seeing really good order flow. We’re still seeing really good demand here, even for the first two months of 2024. And I think that demand will just continue to hold.

Nicole DeBlase: Okay. Got it. Thank you. And then with respect to CapEx, how are you guys thinking about 2024 on both replacement CapEx as well as growth CapEx?

Chris Eperjesy: Yes. I think we said in our prepared remarks, Nicole, our expectation is we’ll grow net OEC or we’ll grow OEC by a net mid-single-digits this year. And our gross CapEx number is going to be similar to this year in that we’re targeting in that $400 million range. So 5% if I picked the mid-single-digit you’re looking at a net $75 million, $80 million of growth CapEx.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Justin Hauke with Robert W. Baird. Please go ahead.

Justin Hauke: Yes, great. Thanks for taking my questions. I guess I wanted to go back to the transmission market and the demand levels there. Has there been a shift? I mean, are you seeing that clients are asking more to buy the equipment rather than rent it, given the demand visibility that they see? And so maybe that’s part of what’s driving the fleet utilization rate down a little bit on the rental side is people are opting to buy it and hold it for longer. I think one of the dynamics you guys talked about when you first came to the public markets was that rental was kind of untraded and there was an opportunity for that to be a greater usage of fleet. So I guess I would just ask for an update on that.

Ryan McMonagle: Yes, a great question. And you’re right. We’ve said, and we’ll continue to say as we see people buy, it’s a good indicator of long-term demand. Transmission probably is a bit of an exception there. Transmission is primarily significantly rented. So we don’t sell a lot of the transmission equipment that we consume, that we buy from our vendors that we put together. So it is a heavily rented product. So it may be a little bit different dynamic there just because of the use case of that, that equipment. So it’s — we’re not seeing that dynamic. And it really does feel like it’s just timing right of when the projects begin. And that seems to be consistent with all of our conversations with customers and certainly what a lot of the industry is talking about right now as well.

So — but it’s a great question and it is true in other product categories. It’s something we watch closely. We talk a lot about when RPO buyouts happen or when buyouts happen from the rental fleet. That’s a good indicator of long-term demand. You saw those levels that were high in the fourth quarter. So we’re still — all signs are still very good kind of long-term demand. It’s just a short-term indicator of when the transmission work really begins.

Justin Hauke: Okay. On that basis, I mean the utilization level, the 77.6% fourth quarter, you guys ended 3Q at 80.4%. And I think kind of the expectation for 4Q is even with this, you were going to kind of hold in that range and obviously came down a little bit. So I think that still is a high utilization rate, I guess, versus history. But what — you gave the fleet growth. But what’s your expectation for kind of utilization rates throughout the year and are they more like 75%, are they more like 80%? Just kind of trend line where you expect them to go?

Ryan McMonagle: Yes, it’s a great question, and you’re right. I think that is a high utilization, if you look in historical context. We did see it continue to come down at the end of the year. And so we are back to kind of that, if 75% is the average, we were just below 75% kind of at the end of the year, and that’s where we are kind of currently at the beginning of Q1. And we’ll expect that to kind of follow the same type of line that it typically follows, which means it should build some in the spring, level off a bit in the summer, and then continue to build into the end of Q3 and the beginning of Q4 to kind of follow that general flow. But yes, I think somewhere around that 75% is probably a good spot to think about it.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Tami Zakaria: Hi. So my first question is, I just wanted to get a sense of how you’re thinking about the cadence throughout the four quarters. Typically, I think you’ve mentioned in the past, EBITDA is called it 45% in the first half and the remaining in the second half. So should we think about the guide in terms of typical or historical seasonality or any seasonality’s to think about as we model 2024?