Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (NASDAQ:CRDO) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Dan Fleming: Yes. I don’t know if I would characterize anything as sequential weakness. If you put all those pieces together, if you exclude NRE from product, it’s flat to up quarter over quarter. And that’s based off of a very strong sequential performance in Q3. So some programs as programs ramp, they become large, there might be pauses in certain things, just speaking generically around programs of this nature. So, nothing – no seasonal weakness, I would say.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities. Your line is now open.

Vivek Arya: Thank you for taking my questions. The quarterly product revenues are running in this $40 million, $45-ish million range. And I was hoping you could give us a sense of how much of that is AEC run rating right now? And how do you think about that quarterly trend over the next few quarters?

Dan Fleming: Yes, I would – so one of the – I mean, we don’t break it out specifically by product line, but what you’ll kind of infer when we file our Q and you look through that is, one of our 10% customers is going through the initial stages of a production ramp of AECs. This is our second hyperscaler that we’ve talked a lot about. So AEC drove a lot of the sequential growth from Q2 to Q3. In the upcoming quarters, again, as these programs start to ramp, it’s a little hard to predict linearity of it, but so there may be some variability quarter-to-quarter, until we hit this second half of fiscal ’25 inflection point. Hopefully that gives you some color, Vivek.

Vivek Arya: Thank you, Dan. My bigger question is, how should we get the confidence that AEC will be a preferred choice by your customers? Because they deployed a lot of GPUs last year, they are already deploying a lot of GPUs, they are deploying a lot of optical transceivers, and so far, right, they have not deployed as much AEC. So, what will change in the second half for them to start deploying more AEC and consider that a more mainstream choice as opposed to kind of a one-off or niche choice in a handful of deployments? I think that’s really the key question.

Bill Brennan: Yes. I think the question is maybe related to architectures for the back-end networks and whether there are top-of-rack switches in the AI-appliance racks. And I think that if we look at the work that we’re doing with our customers, I think the long-term preference is to first of all, deploy Ethernet networks. I think that’s pretty commonly understood amongst the five U.S. hyperscalers. And I think that each one will have kind of a different timeline on when they go into high volume with Ethernet networks. Some of them are deploying with InfiniBand today. And I think from the standpoint of designing with top-of-rack switching versus pulling all of the connections from the AI-appliance using optical connections to the leaf spine dedicated switching network for the back end.

The question, I think it’s around operational efficiency and it’s around how do you build and deploy these. And if you were to look at not implementing top of rack switching, you’re talking about not being able to build known good racks, and then those known good racks being kind of forklift installed in the data center. You would be looking at having to assemble these clusters almost on site, which is there’s a real trade off on operational efficiency. But nonetheless, all of our discussions that we’re having are directly associated with feedback from customers. And I don’t think anything that we’re talking about is a real one off. So, as I think customers kind of execute to their long term plans, this will come more into view.

Vivek Arya: Thank you both.

Operator: Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Quinn Bolton with Needham. Your line is now open.

Quinn Bolton: Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I guess, kind of, following up on Vivek’s question a little bit. Last quarter you had four top customers each representing a different product line. This quarter you’ve talked about three 10%-plus customers. Was wondering if you can give us those 10% customers, what percent of revenues they were, and were they all representing different product lines, or are you starting to see AEC kind of coming to the top and representing the majority of revenue from at least two of your three top customers? And then I got a follow up. Thank you.

Dan Fleming: Yes. So we have – as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we had three 10% end customers in the quarter. And again, it’s important to realize that when our Q is filed in the next day or so, you’ll see our end customer disclosure in our MD&A. But to give you color on what they were, the largest customer was our first AEC hyperscale customer that we’ve talked about. They came in at 28%, and that’s followed by a lead chiplet customer, much of which was NRE driven at 23%. And then the final of the top three, which you’ll be able to figure out who that is based on the warrant was our second AEC hyperscaler customer at 19%. So, two of the top three then would be AEC driven, the other being chiplet driven. So there’s going to be variability in that as we go. Last quarter was a bit interesting and unique in that the top four customers all represented different – four different product lines.

Quinn Bolton: Got it. Thanks for that additional detail, Dan. And then, I guess, Bill, you’ve talked a lot about the U.S. hyperscalers wanting to deploy Ethernet based backend networks instead of relying on InfiniBand. Obviously, to date, most of those GPU networks that have been deployed have been NVIDIA-based, and therefore InfiniBand is a certainly logical choice. But you’ve got a second GPU customer, AMD, that’s beginning to ramp in meaningful volumes. I’m just wondering, can you talk about from a high level, what are you seeing across your hyperscale customer base or the backend connections in AMD, GPU networks? Are they deploying Ethernet? Are they deploying InfiniBand? Is there some other fabric? Because it certainly seem like there’d be pretty good opportunity for AECs with that AMD MI300 deployments going forward.

Bill Brennan: I think that generally speaking, you’re right, but I would say that the visibility we get into the GPUs that are actually being used, it’s really somewhat masked by the NIC. So we see a certain number of lanes of Ethernet at a certain speed. And really our solutions are the same. I’m sure we’re connecting to NVIDIA GPUs, AMD GPUs, and internally developed GPUs as well. So I don’t think that, we would be the best group to comment on the decision-making around Ethernet versus InfiniBand. I can just tell you, based on the discussions that we’ve had, it seems that – it seems very clear that the U.S. hyperscalers have a strong intention to deploy Ethernet. And you can go each hyperscaler and do a bottoms up on it. And I think you’ll see that Microsoft is clearly out there as kind of the lead hyperscaler that is deploying with InfiniBand.

But I think after that the list becomes pretty short and I think everything that we’re saying it’s – Ethernet is going to be preferred.

Operator: Thank you. I’m showing no further questions at this time. Now I’d like to turn it back to Bill Brennan, CEO, for closing remarks.

Bill Brennan: Thank you very much for the questions. We really appreciate the participation and we look forward to following up on the callbacks. So much appreciated. Thank you,

Operator: This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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