Credicorp Ltd. (NYSE:BAP) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Reynaldo Llosa: Yeah. This is Reynaldo Llosa. Yes. I mean, as Cesar has explained during his presentation, there are several reasons that are impacting the total risk and the guidance for this year. Basically, the return to normal levels as we have mentioned in previous calls, also the fact that the macroeconomic environment is challenging due to what we’ve been watching in the country in the previous months actually, and also for the fact that we are growing faster in the retail market than in the wholesale market. Having said that, I mean, there’s still a lot of uncertainty for the following months. So that’s why we have provided a guidance that is open between 1.5 and 2. And we — it will be reasonable that we will be some point in the middle, but I would say, it’s a little too soon to have a precise number or the final number for the year.

Unidentified Analyst: Helpful. Thank you very much.

Operator: Our next question comes from Daer Labarta with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Daer Labarta : Hi, good morning. Thank you for the call and taking my question. I guess my question is on your guidance, I guess, particularly the ROE guidance. Just to try to understand how they get to that 17.5% that you’re expecting for this year? I mean, I know margin is looking better than expected, but that cost of risk seems to be increasing and just taking the 4Q number of 1.9% and given the uncertain macro and political outlook, it does seem like you would be closer to that higher end of the cost of risk, if not even above that. So just to try to see what you’re thinking and get you to that 17.5%. And maybe if you can provide some — what do you think like on fee income growth or expense growth that will maybe help you achieve that?

Gianfranco Ferrari : Cesar?

Cesar Rivera: Thank you for the question. I think the numbers that we provided in the previous guidance where coherent as a whole. But as you can see, we had, at the end, a little bit more cost of risk that’s in the middle of the range. So that explains the 16.7%, basically. And for the 2023, I will argue that we are modeling something similar, in the sense that the combination of the different factors lead us to have around 17.5%. And I would like to stress by the previous call that is an around, it’s not exact figure with decimal points. Regarding the specific question regarding risk, as Reynaldo already mentioned, we have during the year that was expected to come back to more pre-pandemic levels and at the same time to shift a more retail portfolio.

If you see as a whole, it doesn’t look that the shift is radical between wholesale and retail. But within retail, we have been growing significantly faster in Consumer and Pyme than in whole mortgages, for example. So the risk profile has changed. We expect the same behavior during 2023. So if we take out the specific events that impacted the fourth quarter we consider that the range of cost of risk between 1.5% and 2% is reasonable according to, and I’m going to review the general trend and the come back to the risk profile on a segment level, the shift towards more retail portfolio, the specific short-term impacts of the political rates that are going to impact the last quarter of last year and the first quarter in this year. And I will say, if you put all of this in a package led us to believe that this range is reason.

I don’t know if this helps you.

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