Crane NXT, Co. (NYSE:CXT) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

We are actively cultivating companies with a focus on differentiated technologies and services that secure detect and authenticate our customers’ most valuable assets. These markets are aligned to secular tailwinds that will drive long-term, durable growth above mid-single digits and enable us to achieve a ROIC of greater than 10% by year five, utilizing CBS to drive value. Certainly, more to come in this area and I look forward to providing an update at the appropriate time. Moving on to our final page. 2023 was the start of our journey as Crane NXT. We launched the company, delivered on our financial commitments and established a long-term strategy for growth that we believe will drive significant value creation for our shareholders. In 2024, it will be the year we accelerate this strategy, building up the technology leadership in our currency business and investing for the new US banknote series, returning to mid-single-digit growth in CPI, as we work through inventory normalization with our gaming customers and continuing to drive strong free cash flow conversion, allowing us to increase our dividend, while also providing ample liquidity to execute our first M&A transaction.

Taken together, I’m confident in our ability to achieve our long-term objectives, drive profitable growth and create substantial value for our stakeholders. So thank you, again, for your time this morning and we’re ready to take our first question.

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first questions come from the line of Matt Summerville with D.A. Davidson. Please proceed with your question.

Matt Summerville: Thanks. Good morning. With respect to the comments you made regarding kind of the first half, second half weighting, CPI totally makes sense very intuitive given the gaming dynamic. Walk through in a little bit more detail that currency dynamic, the shutdown impact. At the end of the day, trying to understand, how much of revenue and earnings is likely to be weighted first half, second half and how we should kind of think about that cadence? And then I have a follow-up. Thanks.

Aaron Saak: Sure. Hey good morning, Matt, good to hear your voice. So just centering in on currency. So again, the shutdown in the first half is material for us in the US government business, just again to how we recognize revenue. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we recognize that revenue at the time of production. So, a shutdown of part of our papermaking operation obviously impacts that. So, when you think about currency overall then for the year and to your point on phasing, that’s obviously creating a headwind for us in the first half where we expect currency to be roughly flat and then back to growth in the second half, which when we take that in total as our guidance suggests, we’re in the range of that low single digits for the full year.

Q – Matt Summerville: And then maybe a finer point on — for CXT overall. How much of the revenue and earnings weight is front half versus back half for you guys?

Aaron Saak: Yes. I think a simple guide here it’s going to be, roughly 40-60 Matt, that’s going to be both top line and bottom line.

Q – Matt Summerville: Okay. And then maybe I was wondering if you could, maybe elaborate a little bit on, what sounds like a pretty sizable and it’s going to carry the backlog multiyear win, you notched in Crane Currency internationally as well as maybe talk a little bit about the number of denominations that may be in the design phase, with respect to RAPID Vision. Thank you.

Christina Cristiano: Great. Well, I’ll start and then maybe Aaron can jump in at the end. So, we can’t give any specifics on any one customer or amounts there, but there was a multiyear order in Q4 that will have a meaningful impact on the revenue over the next three years. And we’re really excited about that. The team continues to do great in winning new contracts internationally. So, really great job there. And as Aaron said earlier, 17 wins in the year, which really just reflects our leading technology, our ability to deliver what our customers need and our commitment to quality. So, just really great all around there. Just in terms of the denominations, so 150 in the portfolio right now, and it’s been accelerating over the last few years. So just again, really strong story for the international currency business.

Aaron Saak: Yes. I think it’s positive on many fronts, Matt. It’s been broad-based. That’s to Christina’s point, 14 new denominations. So while we did win a materially significant order in the fourth quarter, that’s where you see the backlog growing up to 26%, as we exited the year. We’ve had a lot of wins through the course of the year, and that’s where currency in the international business really exceeded our expectations particularly, as we exited the year. I think RAPID Vision, is just an outstanding story for us. It talks to our technology leadership, the continued evolution of this portfolio. And when we think about new currencies getting designed with the technology, just a reminder, that I know you know and many others that it takes several months to years to go through the design process for new currencies.

So that started for us adding slightly before the launch of the product. We have a few central banks evaluating that technology, and looking to potentially design it in to their next currency. And obviously, we have to wait and let them announce that at the appropriate time. But again, that design to launch period is months to years, depending on a particular central bank.

Q – Matt Summerville: Appreciate the color. I’ll get back in the queue. Thanks.

Aaron Saak: Thanks, Matt.

Operator: Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Damian Karas with UBS. Please proceed with your questions.

Q – Damian Karas: Hi, good morning, everyone.

Aaron Saak: Good morning, Damian. How are you?

Christina Cristiano: Good morning.

Q – Damian Karas: I’m doing well. Thank you. I have a follow-up question on currency. You talked about nice momentum in international and potential upside to your guidance. Could you tell us, what is the kind of like year-over-year growth that you have baked into your guidance for the international currency business?

Christina Cristiano: Yes, I’ll take that one. So it’s mid single-digit growth for international and really just based on the high visibility we have into our pipeline. So we feel very confident about delivering on that this year. Now remember this is a project-based business and the timing of our shipments impacts our revenue recognition. So that could vary. But overall based on our pipeline we feel confident in mid single-digits.

Damian Karas: Okay. That’s really helpful. Thank you. And then just looking at the overall company guidance flat to up slightly sales is your expectation for the year. The margin guide kind of at the midpoint may be down modestly versus where you were in 2023. Is there a way you could maybe just give us a bridge or a way to think about these various headwinds and tailwinds thinking about the productivity price and then the mix impacts anything else?

Aaron Saak: Yes. Sure, Damian. Let me take few moments on that and Christina can add in as well. Again I think when — as I said in my remarks a few minutes ago, we believe the full year guidance is appropriately risk-adjusted and we’re very confident with that. And I think the way you asked the question is appropriate if you got to break down the analysis into some of the constituent parts. So when I think of the currency business as Christina just mentioned, we’re looking at mid single-digit growth there. Again the margin rate of that business a little bit less. So that creates a natural mix headwind inside of currency alluding to the question you’ve raised. So you can think of it as just as international is growing at mid single digits.

There’s a mix down effect naturally in currency where the US government given the shutdown and what we see in terms of their volume forecast we’re assuming that we have flat volumes in a similar mix that we had last year in terms of the denominations. So that’s really the story in currency. Again long-term on the US government as we exit 2024 and get to the launch of ’26 a fantastic story for the business. Now in CPI as I mentioned we expect all parts of the portfolio ex-gaming in aggregate to be growing to mid-single digits. Now again gaming with that said is typically a higher-margin part of our portfolio. So we do have a mix headwind there and that’s what’s really driving the margin question that you alluded to and the range we’ve set in the guidance.

But again, we see gaming with the visibility we have into our customers with a lot of confidence that the natural inventory burn down is going to complete the cycle in Q3 orders return back and we exit at mid single-digit growth in gaming which should give us some improvements as we look ahead into 2025. So that’s really the mix. I would just reiterate to the question Matt asked that because of these phenomena with the US government and gaming in 2024 the phasing of our revenue will be a little bit different than we normally see in the company. And again I think that 40-60 is a good high-level guide. So hopefully that helps Damian.

Damian Karas: It does. Thank you for all that color, Aaron. I will pass it along.

Aaron Saak: Thank you.