Crane Company (NYSE:CR) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

On a full year basis, core sales growth of 18% exceeded our most recent guidance of 16% growth and adjusted operating profit of $159 million was above our most recent guidance of $157 million. Looking ahead to 2024, we expect sales growth of 14.5% with 10% core sales growth and a 4.5% benefit from the Vian acquisition. That 10% core sales growth is above our long-term expected sales CAGR of 7% to 9%, and it reflects what we have clear visibility to delivering based on the current state of the supply chain, and it assumes our current unmet demand in the $50 million to $60 million range, that it doesn’t materially change over the course of the year. We expect margins to increase 140 basis points to 21.5%, reflecting 35% leverage on core growth.

While very solid at 35%, it is toward the lower end of our targeted 35% to 40% range, consistent with our commentary last quarter and today regarding supply chain and inefficiencies and costs that will improve gradually. However, we are confident that the actions we are taking now, being appropriately assertive on pricing where we believe we still have significant opportunities as we move forward, continuing to drive productivity, expediting and adjusting staffing in our factories to manage the supply chain issues and continuing to make investments in new technology, all position us very well for strong leverage and further margin expansion in the years ahead. Total leverage is slightly lower than the 35% due to the Vian acquisition, and that’s because acquired sales always only leverage mathematically at their operating profit margin level in the first year.

From a cadence perspective, sales should increase sequentially across the full year, with margins likely strongest in the second and third quarters given expected mix. At Process Flow Technologies, we are well positioned to continue to outgrow our markets even though we continue to see signs of slowing demand as previously communicated and messaged for the last few quarters. The softness remains largely confined to European chemical, non-residential construction and general industrial markets, as well as some project push outs in North America, but we did see some very nice project wins again in the quarter. Generally, projects have remained significantly stronger than MRO activity as end users continue to focus on cost reduction and inventory levels.

As a reminder, if you look at prior cycles, given our specific product exposures, we typically see slowing activity a few quarters before many others playing in the broader process markets. But as displayed in 2021 and previous cycles, we also tend to recover a few quarters earlier. We continue to focus on what’s within our control, namely, gaining share to outgrow our end markets. While our market outlook is unchanged, orders in the fourth quarter were better than expected again as they were in the third quarter and again, driven by our key project wins and share gains rather than a fundamental change to our market outlook. We still expect negative orders for the first few quarters of 2024 before we see a positive inflection likely later this year.

In the quarter itself, we delivered sales of $272 million, up 8%, with core growth down slightly but more than offset by a 6% acquisition benefit and a 2% benefit from favorable foreign exchange. Adjusted operating margins of 17% increased 90 basis points from last year, primarily reflecting strong value pricing and productivity gains, partially offset by lower volumes and unfavorable mix. Compared to the prior year, foreign exchange neutral backlog decreased 1%, and core FX-neutral orders increased 1%. Sequentially, compared to the third quarter, core FX-neutral backlog increased 2%, with core FX-neutral orders down 2%. Remember that the year-over-year backlog decline reflects in part the natural impact of shortening lead times as the supply chain continues to improve.

For 2024, consistent with our commentary last quarter, we expect approximately flat core sales, with continued share gains and pricing offsetting a weaker market, and the Baum acquisition should add approximately 4.5% to segment sales. We expect margins to increase slightly to approximately 20% following our record year in 2023, with slight dilution from the Baum acquisition, offset by productivity and pricing. This is an outstanding result considering the more challenging end markets expected in 2024. For context, remember that in 2019, just before COVID, margins were 13.6%. The significant step function change in margins reflects structural shifts in the business to higher growth and higher margin end markets, the contribution from accretive new product introductions and pricing that is both disciplined and appropriately assertive given the inflationary environment and our product differentiation.

From a cadence or timing perspective, we expect 2024 to be far more level loaded than 2023. We expect first quarter sales slightly above the fourth quarter exit rate, with margins similar to full year 2024 guidance overall. And overall, the third quarter is likely to be the strongest for the year. At Engineered Materials, sales of $49 million decreased 7% compared to last year. As expected, adjusted operating profit margins decreased 250 basis points to 9.3% on the lower volumes. On a full year basis, core sales declined 13% driven by the RV cycle. However, adjusted margins increased 60 basis points to 14.8%, really impressive performance given the end market challenges last year. For 2024, we expect both sales and margins to be flat compared to 2023, as the RV market stabilizes, with a normal quarterly cadence with fourth quarter seasonality — seasonally, the slowest.