Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:CVLG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Jason Seidl: Okay. Sounds good. gentlemen. I really appreciate the time as always.

Tripp Grant: Thanks, Jason.

Operator: And our next question comes from Jack Atkins from Stephens.

Jack Atkins: Okay, great. So, I guess maybe I’d like to ask you about sort of the trends into the first quarter here, but maybe we could take a step back and kind of think about, Paul, going back to the last couple of quarters, you guys have sort of commented on the cyclicality in the business and sort of how you think you’ve been able to mute that a bit, given all the work you’ve done in the last few years, but you do sound a bit more bearish about the trends in the business that you’re seeing over the last few months. So I guess, as you sort of think about the run rate for the business today based on sort of your outlook for the managed transportation managed freight business in mid-single-digit margins. Do you think down 25% to 30% peak to trough earnings is still how to think about it? Or has that changed any over the last few months?

Paul Bunn: Jack, I would say it’s probably — that’s still our goal. That’s still what we’re shooting for each and every day is down in that 25% to 30% range. We haven’t given up on that goal internally for 2023. And so we had a big meeting on that yesterday, and we talk about it frequently. To your point, you’re taking a step back. I’ll take a long step back. I mean historically, peak to trough, we might have been down 50% or 60%, 70% some years. If you go back to the years we’ve made 2.86 and the next year made 61 or something. And so 75% type reductions. Is it going to be 25%? Is it going to be 30%? Is it going to be 35%? I don’t know. A lot of that’s just going to be what is the market deal up for us, but it’s not going to be anywhere like you saw in the 10 years ago.

So we’re still very confident in the changes in the model, reducing volatility compared to, I’m going to call it, the last 10 or 15 years. We’re still shooting every day for that 25% to 30% reduction. And I think it’s — how achievable that is, probably is a function of how much further the market in general falls? And does it bounce off the bottom? Or does it stay on the bottom for a little while. But we’re still in that whole kind of big vein of becoming less volatile, there’s no doubt compared to the prior years were materially less volatile.

Jack Atkins: Yes. about that — no doubt about that. And I think that’s helpful and I appreciate the way you’ve kind of framed that up. I guess as you think about the first quarter, I know that a lot of people are kind of looking at this 4Q to 1Q trend and should we see better or worse to normal seasonality given all the factors that are at play out there. You guys — it sounds like you guys had a really strong October, which may have been kind of boosting the fourth quarter, but you didn’t have much peak season in November and December. So as you think about the way the business is trending into the first quarter, consensus is about $0.90 or so. Do you feel like that — I mean do you feel like that’s in the right ballpark based on the trends that you’re seeing in the business today, the run rate there? I know January is a tough one too.