Corporación América Airports S.A. (CAAP): A Bear Case Theory 

We came across a bearish thesis on Corporación América Airports S.A. on Monopolistic Investor’s Substack by Antoni Nabzdyk. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CAAP. Corporación América Airports S.A.’s share was trading at $26.40 as of December 2nd. CAAP’s trailing and forward P/E were 23.98 and 4.89 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Corporación América Airports (CAAP) operates 52 airports globally, with its largest footprint in Argentina, a country facing ongoing economic instability. The company generates revenue primarily from aircraft landings and takeoffs, supplemented by commercial operations such as retail, cargo, advertising, and rent, as well as construction service revenue, where airport improvements are recognized as intangible assets. CAAP’s aeronautical revenue grows with passenger volume, with international traffic commanding higher fees.

Key assets include Brazil’s third-largest airport and Uruguay’s Carrasco and Punta del Este airports, along with the only two commercially operating airports in Romania and a tourist-focused airport in the Galapagos. Despite a diverse airline customer base—including LATAM, Aerolíneas Argentinas, Delta, and Ryanair—air traffic volatility has made revenues unpredictable. The company maintains healthy margins, with a 34.7% gross margin and a 10.3% net margin, and benefits from barriers to entry and network effects.

However, CAAP’s moat is weak, scoring 0.4/10, and its financial quality is moderate at 4/10, reflecting declining efficiency and profitability. Customer feedback highlights strong performance at smaller airports like Carrasco but service issues at larger facilities such as Ezeiza and Brasília. Operational comparisons show CAAP underperforms peers like OMAB in ROIC, ROA, and ROE.

While DCF analysis suggests a fair value of $56.21, indicating significant upside from the current price, the company’s heavy debt burden and exposure to Argentina’s economic chaos present substantial risks. Consequently, despite potential undervaluation, the investment case is challenged by unstable growth, operational weaknesses, and geopolitical risks, leading to a cautious sell recommendation.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. (OMAB) by Chit Chat Stocks in May 2025, which highlighted strong passenger growth, rising commercial revenue per passenger, and high operating margins. The company’s stock price has appreciated by 20.02% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as OMAB’s cost efficiency supports cash flow. Antoni Nabzdyk shares a contrarian view and emphasizes CAAP’s volatile revenue and Argentina exposure.

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Disclosure: None.