Corpay, Inc. (CPAY): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Corpay, Inc. on Outsized Returns’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CPAY. Corpay, Inc.’s share was trading at $300.28 as of February 4th. CPAY’s trailing and forward P/E were 19.85 and 11.86 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Corpay (NYSE: CPAY), formerly FleetCor Technologies, is widely misclassified by the market as a commoditized payments company, while it has evolved into a highly embedded financial infrastructure business. Its solutions now span vehicle payments, accounts payable automation, virtual cards, and cross-border FX and treasury services, creating sticky, operationally critical workflows for clients.

This evolution supports long-term compounding, with historical ~17% revenue CAGR and ~19% cash EPS CAGR, yet Corpay trades at only ~22× earnings and 13× EV/EBITDA, reflecting the market’s outdated perception. The company’s growth outlook is clear: ~10% organic revenue growth and 15–20% cash EPS growth, below historical delivery, framing Corpay as a repeatable mid-teens cash compounder. Strategic moves like the ~$2.4bn Alpha Group acquisition expand Corpay’s institutional footprint in FX and treasury services, adding ~7,000 clients and $3bn in deposits, while Mastercard’s minority investment validates its cross-border platform and provides global distribution.

Corpay’s revenue base is diversified, with corporate payments and FX now driving ~40% of revenue and representing higher-margin, high-growth segments, while vehicle payments and lodging remain stable cash engines. The business benefits from embedded workflows, high regulatory barriers, operational switching costs, proprietary data at scale, and legacy networks, collectively creating a durable, infrastructure-like moat. With ~$4.4bn revenue, ~$2.2bn EBITDA, and ~$1.1bn free cash flow, Corpay generates robust cash and exhibits resilient margins.

Upside is supported by both organic growth and potential multiple re-rating as the market recognizes its infrastructure characteristics. Even under conservative assumptions, the business offers strong mid-teens IRRs, while structural execution, workflow embedding, and disciplined capital allocation provide downside protection, making Corpay a uniquely attractive, underappreciated investment with multiple catalysts for value realization.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Global Payments Inc. (GPN) by Excelsior Capital in November 2024, which highlighted GPN’s consistent EPS growth, strong cash flow, and strategic focus on SMBs despite competitive pressures. GPN’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 39.52% since our coverage. Outsized Returns shares a similar perspective but emphasizes Corpay’s evolution into embedded financial infrastructure, high-margin workflows, and durable cash EPS compounding.

Corpay, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 45 hedge fund portfolios held CPAY at the end of the third quarter which was 42 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of CPAY as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than CPAY and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.