Corebridge Financial, Inc. (CRBG): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Corebridge Financial, Inc. on Waterboy Stocks’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CRBG. Corebridge Financial, Inc.’s share was trading at $32.42 as of October 7th. CRBG’s trailing and forward P/E were 8.64 and 5.99 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Corebridge Financial (CRGB) was spun out of AIG in 2022 and is now one of the largest U.S. providers of life insurance and retirement solutions, with four business lines: individual retirement, group retirement, life insurance, and institutional markets, contributing roughly 69%, 21%, 13%, and 14% of operating income, respectively. The company sells future income streams and death benefits through broker-dealers, banks, and financial advisors, investing almost all premiums and deposits in fixed-income securities to meet obligations while earning a spread. In 2024, CRGB generated $12.2 billion of net investment income on a $400 billion balance sheet, yielding approximately a 3% spread.

Total premiums were $4.6 billion, with fees adding $3.0 billion, against policy benefits of $6.6 billion, credited interest of $5.2 billion, and overhead of $2.1 billion, resulting in $2.2 billion of net income and a 10% return on adjusted book value of $22.2 billion. Management has actively repurchased $1.7 billion of shares last year, roughly 10% of the current $17.5 billion market cap, yet the stock trades at 8x earnings and 0.88x book, partly due to residual AIG overhang. CRGB’s $2 billion ongoing buyback program and favorable demographics support projected long-term EPS growth of 10–15%.

The company has also shifted $23.8 billion of liabilities to Bermuda-based Fortitude Re, freeing capital for dividends and buybacks while retaining assets, much of which is managed by Blackstone and BlackRock in high-yield alternatives. Investments include $179.7 billion in bonds, $54.3 billion in mortgages and loans, $22.1 billion in private credit, and other diversified holdings. While this structure enhances returns, increasing exposure to private credit and offshore reinsurance introduces leverage, counterparty, and default risks, particularly as CRGB plans to scale Blackstone-managed assets to $92.5 billion by 2027, highlighting a trade-off between growth and risk.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Aflac Incorporated (AFL) by David in May 2025, which highlighted resilient operations, strong U.S. and Japan sales, and shareholder-friendly capital allocation despite short-term accounting volatility. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 6.97% since our coverage. The thesis still stands. Waterboy Stocks shares a similar bullish view on Corebridge Financial (CRGB) but emphasizes liability transfers, high-yield investments, and buybacks, while noting higher leverage and counterparty risks.

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Disclosure: None.