Copa Holdings, S.A. (NYSE:CPA) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Michael Linenberg: And then just my second question to either you and/or Pedro, this 88% load factor in the fourth quarter, not only is it very high, but — and of course, you’re bringing back capacity now, but it’s up versus the third quarter, so we have sequential improvement. And if I think pre-COVID normally, seasonally, you would see loads maybe dip down 0.5 point, 1 point, 2 points. We could go back and do a 10 year average, and you probably see a few points less. And I’m just trying to get behind why the load is higher. It’s sort of a counter seasonal move on one hand, on the other hand, your network will now be fully back to normalcy and maybe you’re getting the full benefit of connecting across all your various banks, and that’s helping drive that additional load factor despite the fact that capacity is up. Can you just kind of give us — walk us through maybe what’s driving that because that does seem very unique and interesting?

Pedro Heilbron: Things have changed, of course, since the pandemic. And the patterns are slightly different, demand is strong right now. It doesn’t mean that it’s going to be strong forever. Yields are strong, driven by higher fuel price, but we all know for how long either. And then competition, as I mentioned before, has been gradually adding back capacity. Some will come back sometime in this quarter, others are already above pre-pandemic. So there are so many moving parts that are so different to pre-pandemic that we’re really having a hard time predicting exactly how demand is going to behave quarter-over-quarter. So this is like the best of what we can see right now. And that’s kind of like — that’s like the most we can say because again, it’s all changed.

Michael Linenberg: So it sounds like it’s just a period where all the planets are in alignment and you’re just getting good numbers.

Pedro Heilbron: It could be, exactly.

Jose Montero: I think that’s a good assessment.

Operator: Our next question will come from the line of Savi Syth from Raymond James.

Savi Syth: Just on the 2023 capacity, could you talk a little bit about the mix in terms of stage and upgauging and new departures in that 15%, as well as I wonder if you can talk about how you’re thinking about new markets versus kind of building back frequencies.

Jose Montero: Yes. I would say, Savi, that about a little bit more than half of that capacity is just a full year effect of some of the capacity that we built in during 2022. And then the remainder is probably going to be between gauge and frequency into markets that we already . So I think the focus more anything is going to be on initially sort of full year effect and then frequency into markets that we reserve with kind of the additional gauge, that’s kind of at this stage kind of what we have.

Savi Syth: So kind of lower risk growth there then

Jose Montero: I would say so. Yes. I mean I mean the hub still — we have right now 77 markets or 77 cities. We had 80 prior to the pandemic. And so I think that there’s still certainly opportunities in terms of cities and new markets that we would serve, and I think there is going to be some of that. But the majority of the growth is going to come from the latter or the other two areas that I mentioned.