Consolidated Communications Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CNSL) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator: . And we will take our next question from Michael Rollins with Citi.

Michael Rollins: I have two questions. Two, if I could. First, on the EBITDA guidance for 2023, can you share a bit more of the bridge of what’s causing the EBITDA to come down in ’23 relative to what the right organic number is in 2022? And then maybe help us think a little bit more about that inflection going forward that you’re describing? And then the second question is just on the CapEx side. So — and thank you for breaking out some of the categories on the guidance slide. Curious if you could help us think about what the remaining CapEx looks like through 2026 when you’re expecting to be largely done with your builds, where CapEx could fall to in 2027 and thinking about how much of this is related to the build? And then can you — I think you gave it earlier, but just remind us what the total amount of public funds you currently have access to that can potentially offset some of that CapEx?

Robert Udell: Okay. Let me start with the first question, and Fred will take most of this, but let me give you the context. This is our inflection year. We’ve the net positive, and that’s the focus is broadband net adds and predominantly shifting the mix to fiber or 1/3 fiber broadband and 2/3 copper. We started at 10% addressable network. We’re at 38% as we wrap up 2022, and we’ll be approaching 50% at the end of ’23. If you look through history, it’s about that ratio that is required to start the transition from copper to totally fiber and a new network platform, and that sets up for revenue positive and EBITDA positive. I’ll let Fred take the bridge on the…

Fred Graffam: Yes, we haven’t provided normalized numbers for 2022. I will say that the major components of the year-over-year reduction is about $50 million for the asset sales that we had during the year, including the wireless partnerships, the Kansas sale. And we did have a handful of tower sales that are also reflected in that number. So that’s the biggest piece of the reduction year-over-year. We noted another $20 million of legacy phone — largely phone revenue that is part of that reduction year-over-year. We are also — as we talked about — I talked about in my script, the carrier business has seen some pressure, about $10 million we expect year-over-year. And then finally, we are investing more in marketing next year, and I think that’s a good thing. We want to drive the fiber business. And so while we’re not disclosing that number, that’s also an element of the year-over-year change.

Robert Udell: And so I’d add before we get into the capital piece that I’ve got 3 new team members. And so we are going to do some marketing tests, some regional diversity and strategy to focus on maximizing our penetrations and build out a re-rally team that will allow us to be more aggressive in some of the base after the first wave from a construction perspective. So we’re being aggressive to ensure that this is the turn here that we get the most out of as we exit 2023. Now going to capital, I’ll comment on the public private partnership opportunities. We have roughly $150 million of opportunity that we either already captured or in the funnel — I’m sorry, or in agreement and in the construction pipeline right now. Some of that, most recently won will possibly impact fourth quarter and give us upside on build and most of it will end up in 2024.

So it’s what gives me great confidence that we’ll be well above the 70% of addressable market as we exit 2025 or even mid-2026. And so when you look at the overall cost per passing, that positively impacts that, and it allows us to build out complete markets, which improve the marketing efficiency.