Conagra Brands, Inc. (NYSE:CAG) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Sean Connolly: Ken, I’ll make just a quick overall comment and flip it to Dave. But after the last 9 months of kind of elongated volume recovery, our posture has been one of, let’s lean toward prudent because the macro environment has been more volatile than I think anybody expected. And so that’s been our posture. That’s why we didn’t bake in anything heroic in our back half plans and I think that will continue to be our posture until we see a macro that is just inherently bouncer than it’s been. But it’s going in the right direction and that’s good and I think we’re in the — I like the way we’re set up for Q4. Dave, do you want to make any additional comments on Ken’s point?

Dave Marberger: No, I think you pretty much hit it. I mean, Ken, we’re expecting sequential volume improvement and we’ve been talking about that and we’ve seen it through but we also expect to continue investing. So obviously, both of those things impact the top line and you referenced mix, we do have mix impacts in this portfolio and they can be slightly positive or slightly negative any quarter. So as Sean mentioned, we want to be prudent but they are the 3 key drivers that get us to the — towards the low end of the sales guidance range for the year.

Sean Connolly: Yes. And just also to think about it this way too, Ken, is our fiscal ends in May which is kind of an odd month. But what’s happening for us in May is our new innovation is rolling into the marketplace. We are focused at that point of the year, always on the next fiscal year and how do we build momentum in the next fiscal and peak events like Fourth of July, back to school. And so we’re really getting so late in the year now that a lot of our attention is focused on getting these annual operating plans finalized and trying to set up next year to be as strong as possible, including around key dates and holidays and things like that.

Ken Goldman: And then while we’re talking about next year, I realize it’s too soon to provide any kind of quantitative numbers, I wouldn’t ask for them or quantitative information rather. But at CAGNY, you said you’re doing what you can to be as close as possible to be on algo. And I was just curious where your level of confidence on that topic stood today? How you’re thinking about maybe balancing what might continue to be a challenging consumer environment, I guess, with maybe what also could be some friendly top line comparisons, progress on cost savings, cash flow and so forth. Just trying to think directionally how you guys are thinking about that now?

Sean Connolly: Well, you’re 100% right. We will give you our complete and total view of fiscal ’25 on our next call. I think for this call, I think the key messages to our investors are. We are getting momentum on the volume line. We are moving kind of toward that Mendoza line here that everybody wants to see us cross over at some point. Exactly when that happens, as you’ve heard from other companies, I think you’ll get more perspective on that in the coming months as people finalize their plans. That will be true of us. But make no mistake about it, we’ve been watching the consumer for their readiness to kind of re-establish well, their typical behaviors. And we’ve said we’re willing to kind of nudge them along if we see that readiness.

And so we’ve been methodical in not only monitoring their readiness but putting the investment out there to nudge them and measuring the response we very carefully. And we’re getting a good response we’re getting close. It’s not as if the momentum is slowing, if anything, had accelerated in the last quarter. So I think all I can say at this point is I like the setup. We just have to continue to do more of what we’ve been doing, continue to drive it which is that mindset of volume is important but so is protecting margin. And that’s one of the things in our materials today that you saw is why our supply chain team is so important. That work we’ve got going on in supply chain to really maximize cost savings, provides critical fuel for growth and we expect that to continue.

And that’s how ultimately, over the long haul, that’s how we’re going to drive volumes back positive again. We got a really tremendous stuff going on in supply chain with cost savings right now. And as you saw in our Chief Supply Chain Officer, L.A. Ely’s [ph] presentation at CAGNY we are on track to implement our connected shop floor program in half our facilities in the next couple of years. And that is outstanding performance overall. If you look across the industry, that’s a leading position in the industry and that will be key to margin expansion going forward. And so we’re very excited about that work and the legs that it still has in front of us.

Operator: The next question comes from David Palmer with Evercore.

David Palmer: A question on Frozen. I’m curious, particularly on the frozen entrees which your thought there about a return to growth in sales in that business? And if there’s any sort of juxtaposition that you would make between frozen entrees and frozen vegetables and how you view the challenges and opportunities for each and returning to growth?

Sean Connolly: Sure. David, you saw in the presentation today that in Q3 of ’24, our frozen single-serve meal business achieved over a 51% market share which is up 1.7 points versus a year ago. And if you remember Tom McGough’s comments from CAGNY, we have just — we’ve become the leading frozen food producer in the United States, largely because of the success we’ve had in frozen single-serve meals over the last 5 years. So our performance there continues to be stellar and we continue to gain share. And by the way, I’ve made the comment many times that we under-index as a company in terms of competing with private label, Nowhere is that truer than in frozen single-serve meals. So for example, the entire size of private label in frozen single-serve meals is 1.8 points.