Commercial Metals Company (NYSE:CMC) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Peter Matt: Yes. I mean, we expect that the Emerging Businesses Group is going to return to an on-trend performance. So, again, in the quarter, as we said, we had some conditions including weather and also some delays in shipments outside the U.S. that impacted us. But as we look at that business going forward, it should be and should be kind of 15% to 20% EBITDA margin, and it should grow organically. And we would expect it to return to something that was kind of a little bit better than what we did last year.

Katja Jancic: Okay. Thank you very much.

Peter Matt: Yes, absolutely. Thank you.

Operator: The next question comes from Tristan Gresser with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Tristan Gresser: Yes, hi. Thank you for taking my questions. So I have two. The first one is on Mexico. I mean when we look at the products, the imports coming from Mexico, that’s rebar is probably the one that surged the most over the past couple of years, and there’s been a lot of noise, and I believe that senators have put a bill to return to tariffs on imports from Mexico. So can you discuss a bit the situation there? What happened? And also how likely do you think we’re going to get some trade actions there? That’s my first question. Thank you.

Peter Matt: Yes, absolutely. So, you are right, there was a bill recently introduced by senators Brown and Cotton. And the objective of the bill is to restore tariffs to levels that are kind of along the lines of the Section 232 exemption and the USMCA. It’s early days to see kind of what happens there. So we’ll continue to monitor that. But yes, it would be — it would have an impact because there have been an increase in both rebar and merchant bar shipments into the U.S. But it’s early days, and we’ll have to watch that one.

Tristan Gresser: All right. But you have noticed the behavior from Mexican producer ramping up production, being more aggressive on prices. Has it been an issue for you anywhere in the market you operate?

Peter Matt: Well, definitely we are aware of them. But remember, at the same time, we’ve had a decline in some of the imports from the other areas, right. So I would say, in general, imports have been less of a factor in the quarter, and we expect them to be less of a factor kind of in the coming quarters. So yes, we can see it, but again, it’s hard to say what the ultimate impact or what the ultimate outcome of that will be.

Tristan Gresser: All right. That’s helpful. Maybe just another one on infrastructure and at the risk of sounding a bit like a broken record. I mean, we were talking about infrastructure. I think a year ago, there has been consistent delays. And I was wondering if you touch a little bit. I think the delays were also driven a little bit by the political situation. So now as we’re getting close to our U.S. election, could this again, with the change or no change of administration, add a bit more delays. And if that’s the case, I mean, 2025, if we look at the supply situation, if you could share some thought if you think there could be a mismatch because we see quite some capacity ramping up during that year. It’s true towards the end of the year. But still, I’m a bit worried looking at the political situation, the supply growth in 2025 that we could see a mismatch between supply and demand essentially. I would like to hear your thought. Thank you.

Peter Matt: Well, Tristan, thank you for the question. And we’re not concerned about the delays. And if you think about what we’ve said over the last several quarters, there’s a whole predesign phase, there’s a design phase that these projects have to go through until they get to the spend period. And in our conversations with some of the DOTs, what we’ve been led to believe and told is that sometimes these predesign phases can take years, right. And so it was probably — we were probably overambitious in our initial timing of when we thought we were going to see this coming through. But today, we are seeing it come through, as I referenced in my response to one of the earlier questions. And so we are seeing the spending come through.

And the other thing that I would say is that as we look at the kind of political situation, we believe that both parties are supportive of the current infrastructure spending. It was a bipartisan bill when it was approved. And we have not seen any wavering from that on either the Republican or the Democratic side. So we remain bullish on that. And just maybe to pick up on your point on capacity, yes, there is some capacity coming, but we believe that the capacity that will — there’s a difference between the capacity that is announced or indicated and the capacity that’s actually going to get built. And we’re very comfortable with our estimates on how much capacity actually gets built that the market can kind of manage that capacity. So we’re — overall, we remain very bullish.

The demand backdrop is, as I said in my prepared remarks, it’s kind of a generational change from what it’s been, and it’s a multi-year spend that is going to put us in a good position for, I think, years to come.

Paul Lawrence: Tristan, I’ll just add with respect to your comment that we’ll see some capacity come online in 2025, I don’t think that’s necessarily correct. I think if we look at the time line associated to our projects and others and you look at the time associated with ramp-up of commissioning the mills, I think from a true product into the marketplace, we’re looking beyond ’25 at this stage for any of the new capacity to come online.