Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (COLL): A Bull Case Theory

 We came across a bullish thesis on Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. on The Catholic Capitalist’s Substack by Logan Shearer. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on COLL. Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.’s share was trading at $35.16 as of September 24th. COLL’s trailing and forward P/E were 32.92 and 4.87 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

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Collegium Pharmaceuticals (COLL) represents a compelling investment opportunity that is currently underappreciated by the market. The company has historically been stigmatized as a “melting icecube” due to its focus on opioids, yet its pain portfolio remains a steady, cash-generating business. Collegium has successfully commercialized products like Xtampa ER, Belbuca®, Symproic, and Nucynta, leveraging approved medications rather than spending heavily on R&D.

The acquisition of BioDelivery Sciences International in 2022 brought Belbuca fully in-house, expanding Collegium’s control over commercialization and revenue. While the opioid market is mature and slowly shrinking, the company has pivoted into the growing ADHD segment with Jornay PM, an extended-release methylphenidate uniquely timed to act overnight, addressing a persistent gap in pediatric and adult ADHD treatment. Jornay already commands over 20% market share in its niche, with projected 5-year CAGR of 5–6%, offering a clear pathway for revenue growth.

The new management team, led by Vikram Karnani and David Dieter, brings a strong track record from Horizon Therapeutics, demonstrating skill in scaling niche pharmaceuticals through accretive, capital-light acquisitions and disciplined capital allocation. Collegium’s existing pain portfolio funds growth in ADHD while maintaining exclusivity on key products until the early 2030s, creating high barriers to competition. Strategic share repurchases and prudent leverage management further enhance investor confidence.

Trading at under 5x EV/EBITDA with steady double-digit ROIC, the company appears undervalued relative to peers, with a reasonable upside to $60 per share and potential for $120 in a bull scenario. Collegium’s combination of a stable cash-generating base, growth via Jornay, and disciplined management execution positions it as an overlooked specialty pharma opportunity with significant risk-adjusted upside.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Viking Therapeutics, Inc. (VKTX) by Kontra Investments in February 2025, which highlighted its obesity drug candidate VK2735, dual GLP-1/GIP mechanism, and potential oral formulation. The stock has depreciated approximately by 5.96% since our coverage due to execution and competitive challenges. The thesis still stands as VKTX advances in the obesity market. Logan Shearer shares a similar perspective but emphasizes Collegium Pharmaceuticals’ undervalued niche in opioids and ADHD treatments.

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 20 hedge fund portfolios held COLL at the end of the second quarter which was 21 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of COLL as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than COLL and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.