Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Coinbase Global, Inc. on Artemis Big Fundamentals’s Substack by Kevin Li. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on COIN. Coinbase Global, Inc.’s share was trading at $320.07 as of September 23rd. COIN’s trailing and forward P/E were 30.84 and 46.51 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Coinbase reported Q2 revenue of $1.497 billion, essentially in line with our onchain-based forecast of $1.495 billion, but below the Street’s $1.594 billion estimate. The exercise highlights the unique transparency of blockchain, where real-time data enables institutional-quality revenue forecasts. Trading revenue remained the largest segment at $710 million, though total volumes declined 41% from Q1 as the meme-driven rally cooled, particularly in the second half of the quarter. Retail volumes accounted for 20% of activity, yielding $645 million at a 1.4% take rate, while institutional trading contributed $65 million.

The fastest-growing component was stablecoin revenue, with USDC’s market cap surging 36.7% to $60 billion. Applying a median 68% share of total USDC revenue, Coinbase generated an estimated $396 million, making stablecoins the second-largest revenue driver. Blockchain rewards, largely ETH staking, added $159 million despite a decline in staked balances, while Base, Coinbase’s Layer 2, contributed $57.82 million from transaction fees and inferred non-fee income. Other subscription and service revenue, tied to trading activity and custody, totaled $117 million, down from Q1 in line with weaker volumes, while interest income rose 12% to $72 million as Coinbase’s treasury position expanded.

The combination of trading, staking, stablecoin, Base, subscriptions, and interest sources illustrates the diversification of Coinbase’s model, even as cyclicality in trading continues to drive results. More importantly, the ability to estimate these revenues using transparent onchain data underscores a structural advantage unique to crypto, providing real-time visibility into company fundamentals well before official earnings.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) by kumaramit0703 in March 2025, which highlighted its evolution into a diversified fintech platform with strong brand recognition, user growth, and multiple revenue streams. The company’s stock has appreciated approximately by 194.85% since our coverage as profitability and crypto momentum played out. The thesis still stands. Kevin Li shares a similar thesis on Coinbase Global, Inc. but emphasizes onchain transparency and stablecoin-driven growth.

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Disclosure: None.