Clearwater Paper Corporation (NYSE:CLW) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Michael Murphy: Arsen, let me add to that. The outage startup issues, Paul, were not related to the recovery boiler. So that was the key piece of equipment that we’re examining in this outage. So it’s a good question that you asked.

Paul Quinn: Okay. That’s helpful. And then just so I understand this CapEx, you’ve got CapEx of $70 million to $80 million next year. Your basic is $60 million to $70 million, so there’s basically $10 million spread. You’re spending $8 million on in advance on the Lewiston project for 2024 and then basically $2 million on discretionary if I got that?

Michael Murphy: I think there is a blending of discretionary and sustaining, but yes, you’re right to say you’re spending $8 million on a project in 2024 and 2023, otherwise you’re at to slightly above the normalized range that you’ve put out there.

Paul Quinn: Okay. And then just lastly, you’re under your debt leverage target at 2.5 times when I purchased shares in Q4 as opposed to reduced debt?

Michael Murphy: So Paul, it’s a good question. We have an active debate internally. If Q4 wasn’t a great cash flow quarter for us and neither will Q1. And so we ended up just holding on to the cash and liquidity. We are price sensitive on the share buyback and it’s something that we’ll continue to examine here in 2023. Arsen, do you want to add to that?

Arsen Kitch: Yes, to add to that, Paul. That 2.5 time is a cross cycle target. So we may go meaningfully below that at times where it makes sense and we may go higher if we find the right investment opportunities. To me that around 2.5 times is a through a cycle target, we will likely to continue to pay down debt here in 2023 in addition to looking at opportunities to buy back shares.

Paul Quinn: Okay. So does that infer that you’re thinking that the current peer right now is below cycle average?

Arsen Kitch: We think at this stage, given the environment and it makes sense for us to continue to pay down our debt below that 2.5 times.

Paul Quinn: Okay. That’s all I had. Thanks very much.

Operator: Our next question comes from Adam Josephson from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Adam Josephson: Thanks again for taking my call. Mike, I think you mentioned in tissue that you were hoping pulp prices would have fallen by a bit more in the fourth quarter than they did. Bearing in mind mostly hardwood, there’s obviously a tremendous amount of new supply coming from South America over the next couple of years. But at the same time, pricing has been separately high for you. So can you just talk to us about what you’re seeing and why you think prices have been perhaps considerably more resilient than you might have thought? Just your thoughts about the hardwood market at the moment?

Arsen Kitch: Adam, there’s a lot of different thoughts around it and what we’ve seen and you know this, from 2020, if you just look at the index, that’s gone from $900 to over $1,600 and that eased, I don’t know, eased $20, $30 dollars here recently. If you go back through COVID, it was higher demand, supply chain issues and so on and forth. At this point, Adam, and given what’s coming online, it would make sense for us that these prices would come down in the coming years. But I can’t give you a good reason beyond what’s already out there in terms of why these prices are staying stubbornly high.

Adam Josephson: Got it. And just one last one from me, Arsen, on the topic of tissue and just private label tissue industry consolidation in North America. You’ve talked about the need for that on previous calls. Can you just update us on what you’re seeing supply demand wise and if there’s any more or less need for consolidation now than what you thought three, six, nine months ago?