Clearfield, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLFD) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Cheri Beranek: It’s cold in Finland and very dark. So the – and the go a good percentage, 70% of their businesses is, a lot business for European is in Finland. So the guidance for first quarter is slightly less than…

Dan Herzog: Oh, six to seven, yes. I’d say six to seven or six to eight roughly in that range right now.

Tim Savageaux: Is that an absolute dollar or percentage? Oh, dollars.

Dan Herzog: Absolute dollar.

Tim Savageaux: Yes. No, sorry. All right. That’s super helpful. And that’s kind of where I had you. So looking at the – I mean, it’s interesting to note that your community broadband was up sequentially in September.

Dan Herzog: Yes. And it seems, given the magnitude of decline, I mean, regionals already doesn’t have much farther to go to zero. So no, I assume that the primary driver of the decline, kind of has to be community broadband in that regard. And maybe, I don’t know whether it is inventory or pausing in front of BEAD, but I just want to make sure I’m looking at that right, because I know, I mean unless you expect probably go to pretty much…

Cheri Beranek: Yes. There’s a – I’m sorry, go ahead.

Dan Herzog: No, please.

Cheri Beranek: Yes. What I think absolutely, there’s community broadband in there. But I think one of the things that is important to note on community broadband and a size of the pie that you’re looking at is any, mix from one customer to the next can significantly change from one quarter to the next. And so, it’s important to look at the overall business as a trend line and not as a single quarter. And so it’s more of a standpoint if we put – kind of if we put community broadband into the last six months then large regional carrier in the last six months to get a better picture. I mean, the community broadband space tends to be much most of the [indiscernible] are in the space between the Dakotas and Texas. And so certainly weather affects that space much more than we might see some of our cable providers who are more on the coast. But I wouldn’t indicate it from a market trend standpoint. I think, much more seasonal based than it is market trend based.

Tim Savageaux: Yes, that makes sense. And in terms of kind of the flip side or the positive side of seasonality, it sounds like you might expect that into heading into the calendar second quarter of next year. And Dan, it seems like, I know your gross margins are dipping down looks like in the, maybe low to mid-teens here with the under absorption, but is it reasonable to look at a – kind of a break even revenue levels somewhere in the $50 million quarter range plus or minus, depending on how gross margins are at?

Dan Herzog: Yes, I’d put that around the – somewhere around the $50 million mark, and some of it’ll be product mix pricing and everything like that, but that’s – you’re not too far off. It could be slightly lower than your $55 million and so on.

Tim Savageaux: Got it. And Cheri, as we go through, I mean, it seems like this BEAD process is happening pretty much in real time with the initial proposals having been submitted by the states and that unlocking some funding. And Cheri, you may have commented this already, I came on late, but, do you think we’re in a position when it warms up to also have the BEAD process warming up, or should that be a little bit behind the seasonality?

Cheri Beranek: I think BEAD is going to be behind the seasonality because we’re – I think we’ll start to see engineering companies get their money, but like I talked about in regard to the shovel ready initiatives, at best case we’re six months behind engineering for shovel ready. And the engineering dollars will start next summer. So it’ll be a seasonal warming for us. And then the BEAD numbers should come behind that and help us then over the course of the winter. As a result, I think the recovery is going to be messy. And messy not in a bad way, just in a way in which it’s going to be difficult to probably see some of the leading indicators from the generalized marketplace because you’re going to have so many competing data points on it. But the recovery will absolutely come into play. It’s just a matter of timing.

Tim Savageaux: Got it. Thanks very much.

Operator: Thank you. I will now turn the call over to Cheri for closing comments.

Cheri Beranek: Thank you for the opportunity to speak with you today. This is an amazing time in the marketplace. As I talked about earlier, the pendulum swing from demand that appeared insatiable to demand today, which is much more measured and unpredictable. But Clearfield over the last 15 years has been, I think a leader in execution. This is a company that is pragmatic, prudent, and strategic in our outlook and we could not be more disciplined to what we are looking to make happen. As we outlined in the materials, there is more market in front of us than we have behind us. And more importantly, the market that is in front of us is our market, the rural market, the underserved market, and the place in which Clearfield was designed and built to fulfill. And so we are patient, but we are also in a standpoint of being tenacious. And we look forward to delivering shareholder value in the future.

Operator: This concludes today’s teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

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