Clearfield, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLFD) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Greg Mesniaeff: Great. And as a – just a companion to that question. As the BEAD program unfolds, how do you expect that program to impact pricing? Is it going to be pretty much no impact or there will be some changes in willingness to pay things like that?

Cheri Beranek: Oh, there’ll be the – the BEAD program by definition of the BABA initiative, which is Build America, is going to increase the cost of materials. I mean, there’s no if ands or buts about that in that any product that is labor intensive to build, such as the termination of fiber connectivity. If we bring that back into the U.S. market, it takes the same amount of labor. It’s just that the labor costs a lot more in the U.S. And so most of my peers, when we meet at a trade show have been talking about the fact that we’ll have two SKUs of the same product, just one made in America and one made in a lower cost labor market. And they’ll have two different costs, two different selling prices.

Greg Mesniaeff: Got it. Thank you.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Next question comes from Tim Savageaux with Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Tim Savageaux: Hi, good afternoon. First question was on international revenue. And I know there’s some seasonality there. Typically, what are you expecting for Q1 out of international or what’s implied in your guidance?

Cheri Beranek: It’s cold in Finland and very dark. So the – and the go a good percentage, 70% of their businesses is, a lot business for European is in Finland. So the guidance for first quarter is slightly less than…

Dan Herzog: Oh, six to seven, yes. I’d say six to seven or six to eight roughly in that range right now.

Tim Savageaux: Is that an absolute dollar or percentage? Oh, dollars.

Dan Herzog: Absolute dollar.

Tim Savageaux: Yes. No, sorry. All right. That’s super helpful. And that’s kind of where I had you. So looking at the – I mean, it’s interesting to note that your community broadband was up sequentially in September.

Dan Herzog: Yes. And it seems, given the magnitude of decline, I mean, regionals already doesn’t have much farther to go to zero. So no, I assume that the primary driver of the decline, kind of has to be community broadband in that regard. And maybe, I don’t know whether it is inventory or pausing in front of BEAD, but I just want to make sure I’m looking at that right, because I know, I mean unless you expect probably go to pretty much…

Cheri Beranek: Yes. There’s a – I’m sorry, go ahead.

Dan Herzog: No, please.

Cheri Beranek: Yes. What I think absolutely, there’s community broadband in there. But I think one of the things that is important to note on community broadband and a size of the pie that you’re looking at is any, mix from one customer to the next can significantly change from one quarter to the next. And so, it’s important to look at the overall business as a trend line and not as a single quarter. And so it’s more of a standpoint if we put – kind of if we put community broadband into the last six months then large regional carrier in the last six months to get a better picture. I mean, the community broadband space tends to be much most of the [indiscernible] are in the space between the Dakotas and Texas. And so certainly weather affects that space much more than we might see some of our cable providers who are more on the coast. But I wouldn’t indicate it from a market trend standpoint. I think, much more seasonal based than it is market trend based.

Tim Savageaux: Yes, that makes sense. And in terms of kind of the flip side or the positive side of seasonality, it sounds like you might expect that into heading into the calendar second quarter of next year. And Dan, it seems like, I know your gross margins are dipping down looks like in the, maybe low to mid-teens here with the under absorption, but is it reasonable to look at a – kind of a break even revenue levels somewhere in the $50 million quarter range plus or minus, depending on how gross margins are at?

Dan Herzog: Yes, I’d put that around the – somewhere around the $50 million mark, and some of it’ll be product mix pricing and everything like that, but that’s – you’re not too far off. It could be slightly lower than your $55 million and so on.

Tim Savageaux: Got it. And Cheri, as we go through, I mean, it seems like this BEAD process is happening pretty much in real time with the initial proposals having been submitted by the states and that unlocking some funding. And Cheri, you may have commented this already, I came on late, but, do you think we’re in a position when it warms up to also have the BEAD process warming up, or should that be a little bit behind the seasonality?