Rob Brown: Okay, great. Thank you. And then on the 15 liter, very good to hear the voice kind of commentary there. How do you see that ramp rate from these test rollouts to kind of production rollouts and I think you quoted the Cummins percentage numbers, but how do you see the ramp rate more in the early years here?
Andrew Littlefair: The ramp on the 15 liter? Sorry, Rob, it wasn’t, you were. We’re having a hard time hearing you, Rob. Ramp on the 15-liter?
Rob Brown: Yes. Sorry about that, the ramp on the 15-liter, thank you.
Andrew Littlefair: Oh, well, you know, I always want to be a little careful here, but you know, I take it as a very good sign that there’s been recent Cummins presentations where they’ve been fairly candid about it. In fact, then some public statements that they thought that they could sell as many in 2023, 2024, pardon me, 3,500 units. The ‘25 could be 7,000 units and then it would ramp up by ’27, this is where they get to the 8% to 12% number. You know, that doesn’t surprise me. Rob, you remember back with me when we first started out in the 9-liter in the refuse market it was you know 300 units and then it went to 8% then as a 15% went up pretty fast. It went to 50% in that market. Cummins has assured us that the number of engines is not a problem, and that once they get the more of the OEMs, then they can really hit those larger numbers.
So I’m feeling good about that ramp. I think they are too. And so I think you’ll see it move up over those next three years to where you might be pleasantly surprised to be in that 10% range, which would be 25,000 units a year, which would be a big move up from where we are today.
Rob Brown: Okay, thank you. I’ll turn it over.
Operator: Thank you. And your next question comes from Derrick Whitfield from Stifel. Please go ahead.
Derrick Whitfield: Hi. Good afternoon, all, and congrats on your announcements today.
Andrew Littlefair: Thanks.
Derrick Whitfield: Regarding your Del Rio announcements specifically, congrats on getting LCFS through Oregon. That’s a huge win given the backlog that exists in California. Could you comment on the CI assigned by Oregon or your expectations there? I know there’s some differences between California and Oregon?
Andrew Littlefair: Well, I don’t know what, I’m at a little hard time hearing some of the questions, but you’re saying the differences between OR and the CI score? Well, I don’t know. I do know this, Derrick, it’s the reason we sent it there. We’re getting more for it right now. And I don’t know what’s all in it, why the CI score. I’m just not sure, Derrick. We’d have to get back to you on that. I don’t know now look let’s get all I do I do know this on the market because I do understand the market side of this thing. I mean look, Oregon is not as big as California, right? So the LCFS to Oregon was 180. We started injecting in there and it came down some. So you know, it’s a huge market so it’s not unlimited there. We can put more there but you know it’s not going to replace California let’s put it that way.
Derrick Whitfield: And just an extension on that question do you guys see Oregon as a likely pathway for your first few projects?
Andrew Littlefair: We’ll continue for a while. Look, I have great expectations. And I remind our friends in California, as they’ve been kind of fooling around with the low carbon fuel center, I said, you know what? Be careful. You’re not the only state in the United States, right? So you’ve got Washington. You’ve got Oregon. We’ve got the legislature in Illinois looking at it, with New Jersey. New York’s tried to pass it a couple times. The Mexico, you’re going to have other low carbon fuel states. And it’ll be a discipline. It’ll give a little discipline to some who want to continue to muck around with these things. Because you have other markets that will. It’s going to be clear to everybody that RNG is one of the best ways to decarbonize, certainly for transportation fleets.
And so other states are going to adopt it. Now, this doesn’t happen overnight, but it will. So you’ll see these other states, we’re working in those other states now. And we have good support in some of those places. So we’ll, and what I tried to get at, Derrick, in my comments is, which makes — sets us apart a little bit. One, we’re in touch with the demand side of the equation and transportation, you know, we’re in 42 different states. We’re moving RNG today in about 40 states, but it gives us the opportunity certainly with our big supply portfolio, a lot of that being, you know, landfill gas. It allows us to optimize and move gas around to the best markets and we can do that very quickly. So that’s unique to us because we have the gas grid infrastructure.
Derrick Whitfield: Agree, and if I could just ask one question to kind of build on a previous topic. When you look at RNG volumes more broadly, and this is at the EPA level, rent generation peaked in June of this year and has generally decreased over the last few months. In your view, is this due to product owners increasingly pursuing the voluntary market or do you think generators are holding credits to monetize them at a higher price?
Andrew Littlefair : That’s a good question. I tend to think it’s a lap, but you know the way I’m thinking about it right now, landfill gas going to voluntary markets getting $25, and MCF and transportation, the rims are valued more like $36. So the transportation is just a much better market. One of the years ago, one of the energy secretaries said, you know, washing your car, he said, use natural gas to make electricity is like washing your car with champagne. And that’s the way I feel about it is, in a hard to decarbonize market, which is transportation, that’s where R&G ought to go. And it will. And you’re rewarded for it. It’s a little more complicated. But that’s where the infrastructure comes in.
Derrick Whitfield: Great, thanks for your time.
Operator: Thank you. And your next question comes from Paul Cheng from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Paul Cheng: Hey, guys. Good afternoon.
Robert Vreeland: Hi, Paul.
