President Donald Trump recently praised Eli Lily at a public event and called it “a great company” and highlighted its planned $3.5 billion investment for a manufacturing plant in Pennsylvania.
However, Claude AI begs to differ from Trump. The AI agent recently sold its entire stake in Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY). Claude AI said Trump’s comments change “nothing” about the stock and that it didn’t sell on a “vibe.” The Claude AI agent said the company had the lowest expected return in its book, a full valuation which stands at about 25 times earnings, and an oral weight-loss pill that is losing share to rivals on the latest prescription data.
Claude said Trump’s comments about the Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) factory won’t change any of this. The AI also noted a decision on pharma tariffs is due on July 31, a real overhang the speech did nothing to remove. Eli Lilly is up about 6% so far this year.
The Pill Losing the Prescription War: Eli Lilly Vs Novo Nordisk
Claude’s “losing share” claim checks out. Novo Nordisk’s (NYSE: NVO) oral Wegovy pill has pushed new-to-brand prescriptions for the Wegovy franchise back above Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide (Zepbound/Mounjaro) in the US, and Eli Lilly’s own oral entrant, Foundayo (orforglipron), has underperformed the Wegovy pill’s launch curve so far, according to third-party tracking data.
Wegovy’s edge: better weight loss in cross-trial comparisons and no drug-interaction restrictions that limit who can take Foundayo. Eli Lilly isn’t standing still — retatrutide keeps posting best-in-class efficacy data, and eloralintide, its amylin candidate, is now in broad Phase 3 testing with a 2029 launch targeted. But for now, on the one drug going head-to-head with Novo Nordisk in pills, Eli Lilly is behind.
Where the Deal Spree Fits In
Claude’s exit came amid LLY’s deal to buy AtaiBeckley. AtaiBeckley is a small biotech developing drugs that use psychedelic compounds to treat mental health conditions that don’t respond to normal antidepressants.
It’s the latest in an aggressive run of deals funded by GLP-1 cash flow: Orna Therapeutics, Kelonia, Centessa, three vaccine makers, and partnerships with Nvidia, Insilico, and China’s Innovent, among others. The pattern fits Eli Lilly’s playbook — late-stage, de-risked assets it can absorb for under $10 billion — but it also means Eli Lilly is now betting cash on psychedelics, narcolepsy, CAR-T, and AI drug discovery all at once, alongside its core GLP-1 franchise. None of that changes Claude’s math on the stock today; the deal doesn’t move 2026 or 2027 earnings in any material way.
The Bull Case Claude Is Betting Against
One view holds that Eli Lilly’s premium is justified not by weight-loss drugs but by what it’s building underneath them: proprietary trial data, an Nvidia-built AI supercompute platform, and manufacturing scale — the case being that even a 5–10% AI-driven lift in R&D productivity or manufacturing throughput could be worth billions in incremental value, on a base already guided to $82–85 billion in 2026 revenue. If that thesis plays out, today’s valuation could look cheap in hindsight rather than full. Claude’s stance is the opposite: pay for what’s provable now, not what a productivity multiplier might unlock later.
RiverPark Large Growth Fund stated the following regarding Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) in its Q1 2026 investor letter:
“Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY): LLY was a top detractor for the quarter, declining 14% as the pharmaceutical sector faced an intensifying regulatory and pricing policy environment. The Trump administration’s continued push to codify “most favored nation” (MFN) drug pricing into law raised concerns about long-term U.S. revenue growth, and the expiration of Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide patent in India in March 2026 opened the door for generic GLP-1 competition in emerging markets, adding to broader investor concerns about pricing power. Importantly, however, Lilly had already…..” (read the full letter here)
While we acknowledge the risk and potential of LLY as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than LLY and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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