Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE:CFG) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Erika Najarian: Got it. And so, thank you for that, Bruce. So, as I think about the fourth quarter, is it fair then to say that your guidance implies NII of $1.52 billion for the third quarter, so do we assume that we’re at or around that range for the fourth quarter and as we think about the puts and takes of 2024 and John, I have to bring this up because few investors were noting – I think now at Slide 31, where you have some swaps rolling-off that have very heavy weighted-average fixed rate that you’re receiving. So as I think about $1.52 billion perhaps is a starting point plus or minus, I assume that the – your guide were down 100 basis points. NII for the full year down 1.2%, it’s still valid if we assume rate cuts next year and includes those swap roll-off.

So that’s sort of the first question. And the second is, how does balance sheet optimization impact that sensitivity? So I’m assuming that’s extraordinarily static. So – and I’m assuming that’s from – both sides are paying off more debt next year as you were waiting for these loans to come on and then – as you wait for these loans, you’re also putting it in higher-yielding in cash. So, if you could just help us think through the moving pieces as it relates to that original disclosure because I think investors are thinking about the potential for rate cuts next year.

John Woods: Yes. Maybe I’ll just start off in a couple of areas. Just when you think about NII, similar numbers that you’re throwing out there are probably a little lighter than where we will see them come out. I think our NII be a little better than that and into fourth quarter, I think we have some opportunities to – if interest earning assets are going to be stabilized, as Bruce indicated and net interest margin stabilized, so we think the NII has also stabilized at that solid levels. So that was I think the first question that you had. I mean I think the –

Bruce Van Saun: Just to put a point on that too is, any swap impacts are in our forward guide, Erika. So we’ve already contemplated that. So there’s nothing and they didn’t really move. We didn’t do any adjustments in the second quarter, so.

John Woods: Yes, there is a very limited adjustments. Things do roll-off and come on, but broadly, our asset sensitivity profile was pretty stable quarter-over-quarter, meaning we are – we were still asset sensitive. So a rate rise, which we’re about to get from the Fed does actually contribute to NII and net interest margin for us. So from that perspective, all of that has been built into the commentary that we’ve been giving you in terms of swap roll-off and our ongoing positive asset sensitivity. Again, when you get – when you think about net interest margin over kind of the next several quarters, we have a number of tailwinds. You’ve got flattening out non-interest-bearing migration. So that’s no longer expected to be a big headwind. You’ve got the run-off book that we talked about and that runoff book is going to be rotated into relationship lending at higher yields. So the runoff –

Bruce Van Saun: Paying off high-cost debt.

John Woods: And paying down high cost funding, right, so which – where we have a negative kind of spread situation there. We already mentioned the fact that the Private Bank is going to start contributing to the balance sheet later this year and that the net interest margin on that is actually accretive to the overall legacy bank. I think, throughout there is that, just front book back book dynamics, where you basically have originations in the front book. Just in the securities portfolio alone, there’s 300 basis points positive front book, back book in terms of – we’re actually creating a bigger security stock, but we’re doing at the right time where securities yields are actually historically quite favorable. And so we’re putting a lot of way from that standpoint.

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