Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Chord Energy Corporation on r/Valueinvesting by pandacrusher63. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CHRD. Chord Energy Corporation’s share was trading at $92.30 as of January 19th. CHRD’s trailing P/E was 31.18 according to Yahoo Finance.

Chord Energy (CHRD) is a U.S. mid-cap oil and gas producer distinguished by a pristine balance sheet, disciplined operations, and an exceptionally shareholder-friendly capital allocation framework. The company returns more than 90% of adjusted free cash flow to shareholders through a combination of an attractive base dividend and consistent share repurchases, retiring roughly 5–8% of outstanding shares annually, all fully funded from internally generated cash flow. This approach reflects a strong commitment to capital discipline and positions CHRD as a differentiated operator within the upstream energy space.

The company’s asset base is highly concentrated, with approximately 98% of its acreage located in the Williston Basin. The recent acquisition of Enerplus meaningfully enhances Chord’s scale, inventory depth, and operational efficiency within this core basin, extending its runway of high-quality drilling locations and improving long-term capital efficiency. Williston Basin production is predominantly light, sweet crude, which benefits from favorable pricing dynamics and serves a distinct refinery slate compared to heavier sour crudes. As a result, incremental supply of heavy oil from Venezuela is unlikely to materially impact Chord’s realized pricing or competitive positioning.

From a cost and resilience standpoint, Chord is well positioned to withstand prolonged commodity weakness, with economics that remain viable even at approximately $50 oil over a multi-year horizon. Applying a discounted cash flow framework using conservative long-term assumptions suggests that the market is significantly undervaluing the durability and cash-generating capacity of the company’s assets.

With shares trading around $90, CHRD appears mispriced relative to its free cash flow yield, balance sheet strength, and capital return profile. While commodity price volatility remains an inherent risk, the combination of asset quality, financial flexibility, and disciplined shareholder returns creates a compelling long-term value opportunity.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Civitas Resources, Inc. (CIVI) by mbacandidate1 in January 2025, which highlighted the leverage-driven growth strategy, discounted valuation, and elevated shareholder yield. CIVI’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 46.82% since our coverage due to oil price weakness and balance sheet concerns. pandacrusher63 shares a similar thesis but emphasizes balance sheet strength, capital discipline, and consistent free cash flow returns.

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Disclosure: None.