Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Chord Energy Corporation on Stock Analysis Compilation’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CHRD. Chord Energy Corporation’s share was trading at $106.72 as of July 14^th. CHRD’s trailing P/E was 7.1  according to Yahoo Finance.

Chord Energy is a low-cost exploration and production (E&P) company operating in the Williston Basin, presenting a compelling investment opportunity due to its strong balance sheet, consistent free cash flow, and significant shareholder returns.

Following the sharp decline in oil prices in April, Chord’s stock traded below the firm’s net asset value based on its proven reserves, creating a valuation mismatch. In 2024, Chord generated $2.35 billion in EBITDA and $1 billion in free cash flow, underscoring its operational efficiency and robust cash generation.

With only $800 million in debt, most of which matures in 2033, the company has significant financial flexibility, enabling it to continue rewarding shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Since 2021, Chord has returned $56 per share in dividends—more than half its current share price—demonstrating a clear commitment to capital return. The firm’s combination of disciplined capital management, low-cost reserves, and minimal near-term debt obligations makes its equity highly attractive, especially with a market cap of just around $5 billion.

The company’s ability to generate substantial free cash flow even in a volatile commodity environment supports the continuation of shareholder returns and underpins a long-term value opportunity. With the stock trading below the intrinsic value of its reserves and the firm maintaining high free cash flow yields, Chord stands out as a mispriced E&P business. Investors benefit not only from near-term cash returns but also from the long-term optionality in oil prices, positioning Chord Energy as a high-quality, undervalued play in the energy sector.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Civitas Resources, Inc. by mbacandidate1 in January 2025, which highlighted the company’s debt-funded growth strategy, undervaluation relative to peers, and high shareholder yield. The company’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 39.44% since our coverage. This is because the thesis didn’t play out as expected. The thesis still stands as upside remains if operations stabilize. Stock Analysis Compilation shares a similar view on Chord Energy but emphasizes a stronger balance sheet and more consistent capital returns.

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Disclosure: None.