Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

John Ivankoe: Thank you.

Operator: The next question will be from Dennis Geiger from UBS. Please go ahead.

Dennis Geiger: Thank you. Just first wondering if it would be possible to give the traffic mix price for the 4Q? And then the question is really about pricing €“ another one on pricing. Just curious if you believe you’ve seen any customer resistance to pricing levels, how that’s kind of shaped how you thought about the pricing that you talked about for the year. And related to that, any kind of update on value scores, the low-income customer that you spoke to last quarter, anything as it relates to shaping your view on how the business performs into a potentially tougher macro? Thanks guys.

Brian Niccol: Yes. Sure. So look, we really have not seen any meaningful resistance to our pricing, especially as it relates to our in-store experience. Obviously, the delivery channel was down, but I think that’s a function of a couple of things. One, you do have to pay a premium for that occasion, combined with that the in-store experience is back and people are back out and about. So potentially, they see the convenience, the customization of coming in the restaurant and getting it on kind of their control terms. We continue to see the higher-income consumer, the individual that earns over $100,000, coming more often. And frankly, I think the same thing would have happened with the low-income consumer regardless of what the pricing was that we acted on.

And we made the decision not to go chasing people with discounts. That’s not what our brand is, and that’s not what we’re going to do. We’re better off winning the value gain through great culinary, great speed/convenience, terrific customization, and we know that continues to resonate. Our value scores continue to be really strong. If you look at people that I would say are comparable that are in the fast-casual category, we’re still at 10% to 30% discount. So look, I think we’ve made a lot of really good moves to kind of move with the challenges that we’ve had to deal with. And as a result, I think we’re seeing stronger operations, stronger teams. And we’re seeing, I think that work come out to bear in January and where we are here in February.

So Jack, I don’t know if there’s anything to add to that.

Jack Hartung: No. I think you said that perfectly, Brian. And just €“ I think you were looking for the components in the quarter. The components of our pricing was about 13.5%. Transactions were down about 4%, mix was down about 3%. So that gets you to an underlying comp about 6.5%. And then we had the journal entry that deals with breakage, and that was 80 basis points. So that gets you to the 5.6% comp.

Dennis Geiger: Great. Thank you guys.

Operator: And our next question is from Jeffrey Bernstein with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Jeffrey Bernstein: Great, thank you very much. First question is just on the restaurant margin. I know for full year 2022, you ended in that 24% range, though you talked about maybe some headwinds in the fourth quarter that brought that in below expectation. Just wondering, if you can give any specific thoughts as you look to full year 2023. I know you gave some color specific to the first quarter, but as you think about the environment going forward, your pricing perhaps rolling off by the end of the year and what you know today based on kind of the key cost pressures. And just wondering your thoughts on the full year 2023, whether it’s reasonable to assume or return to 25% plus in 2023 or beyond. I know you mentioned getting to more like 27% when you hit the $3 million, but just wondering kind of on the interim what you’re thinking specifically of the 2023.

Jack Hartung: Yes, I mean, it’s so hard and the reason we gave, some color on the first quarter, but not beyond that is we don’t know what’s going to happen to the economy. We think inflation will be reasonably tame. Hopefully that will come true. And we don’t, we haven’t made any decisions on pricing action right now. So Jeff, the way I would think about it is we’re going to kind of let the year play out. We’re going to do everything we can in terms of managing supply chain, managing as we recruit people we’ve got to pay the wages to, make sure that, we gear up for burrito season. We’ll watch how the inflation element plays out. And we don’t have any plans right now to take pricing action. So we might be, more patient this year than we were last year.

The inflation kept coming at us, and then we could see more ahead and we take pricing action, we see even more ahead. It doesn’t feel like it’s, at that fever pitch. So I think, you could see us being more patient this year. What I can tell you is when things do normalize, whether that’s later this year or into 2024, we absolutely have at these kind of volumes, the ability to get a margin up into that 25% range on a sustainable basis, and then it’ll grow from there. I just don’t want to make any promises on a quarter-by-quarter basis. Just because so many things has happened €“ have happened in the last several quarters, and it’s hard to predict what’s going to happen, but I do know that our model is intact.

Jeffrey Bernstein: Understood. And I’m just following up on a couple of bigger picture topics. I think, Brian, you mentioned that international growth’s going to be at, I think you said a measured pace. I’m wondering if the headwinds, to your point about the economy in Western Europe perhaps, is the primary reason why it’s measured or maybe there are other causes for concern. Anything around that international acceleration and when the timing of that might be would be great. Thank you.