Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Cellebrite DI Ltd. on X.com by KairosPraxis. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CLBT. Cellebrite DI Ltd.’s share was trading at $16.86 as of November 28th. CLBT’s trailing P/E was 44.37 according to Yahoo Finance.

Cellebrite DI Ltd. develops solutions for legally sanctioned investigations in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific. CLBT reported Q3 earnings that impressed the market, sending shares up 20%, driven by strong execution and resilient operations. The company demonstrated solid operating leverage, with EBITDA margins of 29.9%, even while investing heavily in cloud infrastructure and FedRAMP compliance.

Its Guardian platform is a standout, growing 100% year-over-year and expanding Cellebrite’s exposure to defense and intelligence agencies, with NATO contracts potentially on the horizon. This represents a strategic diversification from its traditional commercial base and positions the company for longer-term recurring revenue.

However, structural delays in U.S. federal contracts have constrained near-term growth, leaving the company in a 17-19% ARR range with weaker net revenue retention. Q4 guidance was cautious, reflecting continued federal contracting challenges, though 2026 is expected to be a more meaningful growth year. The company’s heavy FedRAMP investment offers long-term upside, but it also concentrates risk around government adoption timing. Adding complexity, Sun Corp, which owns 40% of CLBT, plans to reduce its stake significantly, creating potential short-term volatility depending on market reaction.

Despite these near-term uncertainties, valuation remains attractive at approximately 25x 2025 free cash flow, suggesting the stock is reasonably priced even if federal contracts are delayed, with expected 15-20% growth. The combination of strong private sector growth, strategic Guardian expansion, and eventual federal contract realization presents a compelling risk/reward scenario. Investors may see attractive entry points on dips, particularly as guidance and contract execution clarify in 2026, making CLBT a story of operational strength poised for longer-term upside with manageable near-term uncertainties.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on DLocal Limited (DLO) by Oliver | MMMT Wealth in March 2025, which highlighted the company’s positioning in emerging markets, its cross-border payment solutions, and long-term growth potential. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 73.10% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as DLO’s market advantage remains intact. KairosPraxis shares a similar perspective but emphasizes Cellebrite’s operational execution and Guardian platform growth.

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Disclosure: None.