Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Cellebrite DI Ltd. on Value investing subreddit by BoredSuzuki. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CLBT. Cellebrite DI Ltd.’s share was trading at $19.05 as of October 9th. CLBT’s trailing P/E was 10.08 according to Yahoo Finance.

Cellebrite (NASDAQ: CLBT) is a high-quality, mission-critical software company dominating digital investigations with an impenetrable public-sector moat and near-total share across U.S. and global law enforcement. Valued at $4.6 billion with 20%+ YoY revenue growth, 85% gross margins, 26% FCF margins, and no debt, the company combines elite financial quality with structural tailwinds from rising case backlogs and digital evidence complexity. Cellebrite’s platform powers over 7,000 agencies across 90 countries, with 90% of revenue from the public sector.

Its core Digital Forensics Suite (80% of revenue) remains the backbone of global investigations, while Guardian and Pathfinder—cloud-based evidence management and analytics products—are doubling annually. Despite 20 consecutive quarters of 120%+ NRR, shares have corrected ~30% amid transient fears over budget delays, management turnover, and perceived competition, creating a temporary disconnect from fundamentals.

The central bull case rests on two drivers. First, growth depth: while Cellebrite has penetrated nearly every major agency, only 5–8% of potential users currently have licenses. Expanding adoption to investigative units, which depend on digital evidence but lack direct access, could meaningfully expand ARR as agencies seek to reduce backlogs. Second, FedRAMP authorization, expected by Q3 2025, will unlock nationwide cloud adoption, starting with federal agencies and cascading to state and local levels—potentially adding over $150 million in ARR.

With strong activist pressure, a sale to a strategic or private equity buyer such as Axon, Motorola, or Vista remains possible, supported by SunCorp’s 50% stake and a $30/share earnout incentive. Even under conservative assumptions, intrinsic value implies ~100% upside over three years, while upcoming catalysts—FedRAMP approval and 2026 World Cup public safety funding—position Cellebrite for substantial multiple expansion and sustained compounding.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on DLocal Limited (DLO) by Oliver | MMMT Wealth in March 2025, which highlighted the company’s leadership in emerging market payments, regulatory expertise, and growth potential from cross-border digitalization. The stock has appreciated approximately 52.87% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as fundamentals remain strong. BoredSuzuki shares similar optimism but emphasizes Cellebrite’s public-sector software and asymmetric growth catalysts.

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Disclosure: None.