Greenhaven Road Capital, an investment management company, released its second-quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. In the second quarter, the fund returned approximately +14% net of fees and expenses, bringing the YTD returns to under +1%. YTD, the Russell 2000 has returned -1.8%. In addition, you can check the fund’s top 5 holdings to determine its best picks for 2025.
In its second-quarter 2025 investor letter, Greenhaven Road Capital highlighted stocks such as Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT). Headquartered in Petah Tikva, Israel, Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT) is a software company that develops solutions for legally sanctioned investigations. The one-month return of Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT) was 13.32%, and its shares lost 3.69% of their value over the last 52 weeks. On August 18, 2025, Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT) stock closed at $16.16 per share, with a market capitalization of $3.951 billion.
Greenhaven Road Capital stated the following regarding Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT) in its second quarter 2025 investor letter:
“Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT) – Cellebrite has been our worst performing holding YTD. Investors are concerned that uncertainty around US federal budgets will lead to delayed purchases. Additionally, an acceleration of the business is implied to meet 2025 guidance. Thus, while the company has not cut 2025 guidance yet, there is a real risk that it will. Fortunately, unlike the share price, the business is not falling off a cliff. In Q1, Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $408.0 million was up 23% year-over-year.
In addition to concerns about federal spending, there is management turnover. The permanent CEO has not been named and a new CFO was appointed earlier this month. Management turnover is often a sign of a business in distress. In the case of Cellebrite, however, I believe that it is a sign of a business preparing to be sold. The outgoing CFO did a great job of growing Cellebrite in a capital efficient manner, but English was not her first language, and she has never sold a business.
Cellebrite’s SPAC sponsor, True Wind, has an incremental 1.5M shares that will vest if Cellebrite’s share price is above $30 by August 2026. The new CFO sold his last company, New Relic, and I don’t think that the experience of running the sale process for a public company was just a nice to have for the CFO. Instead I suspect it was the primary reason for his hiring.
New management and True Wind are going to be very focused on getting to $30 within the next year which would be more than a double from today’s price. I expect they get there. For Cellebrite, my expected value = $30 and timing = 2026.”
A female engineer in a datacenter, wearing a headset, monitoring digital data.
Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT) is not on our list of 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 30 hedge fund portfolios held Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT) at the end of the first quarter, which was 34 in the previous quarter. Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT) reported revenue of $113.3 million in Q2 2025, up 18% from Q2 2024, driven by subscription revenue growth of 21%.While we acknowledge the risk and potential of Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT) as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT) and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
In another article, we covered Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT) and shared the list of stocks crushing while Wall Street naps. In its Q1 2025 investor letter, Greenhaven Road Capital highlighted Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT) and shared its views on the company. In addition, please check out our hedge fund investor letters Q2 2025 page for more investor letters from hedge funds and other leading investors.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
