CBRE Group, Inc. (NYSE:CBRE) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Bob Sulentic: Yes Chandni, I’ll comment and then I’ll give it to Emma. First of all, we actually expect 2024 to not go back to ’22 levels but actually exceed ’22. A big part of that is the large portion of our business that’s either secularly benefited or cyclically advantaged, all of that outsourcing business which in aggregate is now quite large. Anything we’re doing for the industrial or multi-family asset classes, we expect to be strong by then. Project management will be strong, we expect the debt business to come back, so all of those circumstances are driving it. Now, the thing that would cause it to not happen is if we were wrong about the recession, if the recession was worse or lasted longer or started later, but those parts of our business are what we expect to drive that outcome. Emma, you may want to add to that.

Emma Giamartino: Yes, to put a little context around what those numbers look like, Chandni, if you think about our resilient lines of businesses, we’ve talked about that being 40% contributor to our SOP. In 2022, it was 45% of our SOP; in 2023, it’s going to be closer to 50% to 55% of our SOP, and those are our lines of business that we expect to continue to grow through a recession, so that’s becoming a larger and larger part of our business. Then our transactional business lines, we expect them to rebound starting a little bit the end of 2023 into 2024, and what’s important to know about that is the growth that’s embedded in that outlook to get back to above 2022 levels means that our advisory lines of business, our transactional lines of business would need to grow less than they did in 2021.

Putting that all together, it’s very achievable. Then on top of that, what’s not embedded in the 2024 guidance or our outlook is any sort of material capital allocation or M&A, which would put us far above 2022 levels.

Chandni Luthra: That’s very helpful, and that’s exactly what I wanted to talk about for my next question, but more focused on 2023. In terms of buybacks and just general capital allocation, you talked about using–you know, you talked about only a modest use of capital in 2023, and that means the buyback is not part of that EPS guide that you’ve given today. But how would you rank buybacks and M&A in 2023 in terms of priority, and do you think buybacks could look much like 2022 in 2023? Then switching gears to M&A a little bit, if M&A were to be part of the calculus, could you give us some parameters on what that could potentially look like, how much leverage would you be willing to tap into, and what would be the potential business lines that you would like to explore?

Emma Giamartino: Sure. When we look at allocating capital, we look at buybacks and M&A and are weighing which is a better use of our capital and which can drive a greater long term return for us. In 2022, you saw there wasn’t a significant amount of M&A opportunities, but obviously we’re building our pipeline and continue to build our pipeline and are seeing things–conversations are starting to build and accelerate in a way that they did not in 2022. But because there wasn’t a tremendous amount of M&A activity available, we repurchased almost $2 billion worth of shares and our share price was also at an attractive valuation, so we’ll continue to look at that. We are constantly evaluating whether we’re going to buy back or we’re going to do a larger transformational acquisition, and we’ll continue to do that throughout this year and we’ll update you as that progresses; but in our outlook, we didn’t include what that would look like because we don’t know how it’s going to unfold going forward.