CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on CAVA Group, Inc. on Value investing subreddit by raytoei. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CAVA. CAVA Group, Inc.’s share was trading at $62.70 as of January 28th. CAVA’s trailing and forward P/E were 54.05 and 109.89, respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

CAVA Group, Inc. owns and operates a chain of restaurants under the CAVA brand in the United States. CAVA presents a potentially compelling growth story, though it comes with significant execution risks. The company has only recently achieved GAAP profitability, which limits the historical track record of predictable earnings. However, if one models CAVA’s trajectory over the next five years, the growth opportunity becomes apparent.

Analysts’ revenue estimates range from $2.33 billion to $2.74 billion by 2030, reflecting annual growth rates in the high teens to low twenties, broadly in line with Chipotle’s growth when it scaled past the $1 billion revenue mark. Assuming a modest 2% annual dilution, sales per share could reach roughly $20.58 by 2030.

Applying a reasonable P/S multiple derived from Chipotle’s five- to ten-year historical averages (4.69–6.09x) suggests a potential share price between $96.58 and $125.32, implying a CAGR of 14.6%–20.7% from the last close of $48.89. These figures indicate that CAVA could deliver attractive returns for long-term investors if it successfully executes its growth strategy.

The critical questions center on whether the company can sustain 20% annual sales growth, maintain disciplined dilution below 2% per year, and navigate competitive pressures in the fast-casual segment. While downside exists if growth slows or dilution accelerates, the combination of strong unit economics, an expanding footprint, and a market that has recently repriced the stock near $50 creates a favorable risk/reward profile. For investors comfortable with growth risk, CAVA appears positioned to reward patient capital, offering a meaningful opportunity for outsized returns if management can deliver on its ambitious expansion plans.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) by din0_os in March 2025, highlighting 28% YoY revenue growth, strong same-store sales, and aggressive expansion. The stock has depreciated by 27.30% since our coverage due to softer guidance. The thesis still stands as CAVA scales its concept. raytoei shares a similar view but emphasizes a 2030 forward-looking valuation using sales per share and P/S multiples.

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Disclosure: None.