Carrier Global Corporation (CARR): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Carrier Global Corporation on R. Dennis’s Substack by OppCost. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CARR. Carrier Global Corporation’s share was trading at $57.07 as of January 27th. CARR’s trailing and forward P/E were 35.86 and 19.12 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Carrier Global Corporation provides intelligent climate and energy solutions in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. CARR represents a high-quality industrial franchise benefiting from sticky demand and durable secular tailwinds, making it well-suited for a high-conviction options strategy despite near-term cyclical pressure in residential HVAC. The company has recently completed a strategic transformation, exiting its Fire & Security and Commercial Refrigeration businesses to emerge as a focused pure-play HVAC and climate solutions leader.

This sharpened profile aligns Carrier squarely with long-term growth drivers tied to energy efficiency, sustainability, and infrastructure modernization. While residential demand softened through 2025, this has obscured the strength of Carrier’s commercial exposure, particularly as AI-driven data center expansion fuels demand for advanced, high-efficiency cooling systems. At the same time, tightening global environmental regulations and the accelerating adoption of heat pumps—reinforced by the Viessmann Climate Solutions acquisition—are creating a multi-year replacement cycle that is structurally resilient and largely non-discretionary.

Against this backdrop, selling the March 2026 $50 puts reflects confidence in both the business fundamentals and the stock’s downside protection. The $50 level closely aligns with CARR’s 52-week low of $50.24, a price area that has consistently attracted long-term buyers, effectively establishing a fundamental and technical floor.

After collecting an $0.80 premium, the implied entry price of $49.20 provides a meaningful margin of safety relative to the current ~$57.30 share price, while monetizing elevated implied volatility ahead of Q4 2025 earnings. With residential weakness already priced in and commercial growth poised to surprise on the upside, the risk-reward skews favorably. Whether the puts expire worthless or result in ownership at an attractive valuation, the strategy positions investors to benefit from Carrier’s evolution into a compounding climate and energy solutions leader that the market continues to undervalue.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Watsco, Inc. (WSO) by FluentInQuality in March 2025, which highlighted the company’s dominant HVAC distribution model, recurring replacement demand, and technology-driven efficiency. WSO’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 21.88% since our coverage due to broader HVAC cyclical pressures. OppCost shares a similar but emphasizes on Carrier Global’s pure-play HVAC manufacturing focus and AI-driven data center cooling demand.

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Disclosure: None.