CapStar Financial Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSTR) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

So, I’m not trying to shy away from your question, but I don’t think there’s an easy answer. I guess here’s how I answer it, is if we stayed in a — if we stayed — if the economic environment stays as is through ’24, I would hope that our quarterly expense level goes closer to ’18, and it would not be out of line to think that it couldn’t stay generally in that range all of next year. If rates go down beginning next year, I hope that is our underlying base with some permanent savings, but I think sales commissions and certain incentive plans will go up as a percentage of revenue. There certainly would be operating leverage because it wouldn’t be the full amount, but you’re not going to get the revenue gain without some expense growth. I don’t know if that makes sense or helps.

Will Jones: No, that’s very helpful. And I know there’s a lot of puts and takes to that question, so I appreciate that kind of guidance there. And I guess just maybe switching gears to the buyback. I mean, you guys are looking for the past two quarters have been active around the $6 million to $7 million range. You did it this quarter, keeping TCE really flat and CET1 really — CET1 maybe the governor for buybacks going forward here. But to the extent the stock stays cheap, Tim, it sounds like you’re very motivated by the valuation here. Did the buybacks continue at the same clip? Or could we see a more active pace of buybacks going forward? Just how are you thinking about it here?

Tim Schools: Well, we put a release out. And I don’t think immediately — I wouldn’t expect third quarter will be the same level as second quarter. But as I said, I mean, our adjusted — if you would — everybody views it differently, but we have a very small securities portfolio. Everything I said, our insured deposit levels are high, the likelihood of us having to sell our securities portfolio is very low. And so, I know that’s GAAP accounting, and I know it’s marked in there on our tangible book value, but our tangible book value, I don’t have it right in front of me, is something like $14.60. And if you adjust for the AOCI, it’s almost $17. So I just think our stock is cheap, no matter how you look at it. You can argue what you think the value is, but I just think it’s cheap.

And I would be a buyer of the stock, but you’ve got lots of concerns out there. The waters are as choppy as I’ve seen in my career, in that there’s multiple waves at once. There’s deposit pricing pressures. There’s liquidity pressures. Now they seem to have subsided in June and July. People continually talk about the credit cycle and whatever. And so, we would never want to be in a position — we wouldn’t want to be greedy to get a little accretion at the risk of ever having to dilute a shareholder if you had to do a capital raise. And it wasn’t right before the National Capital test just came out, the stress test, there was a lot of talk about banks were going to have to raise capital, U.S. bank and other banks. And we’ve never been in that conversation.

But I would say to say here in the immediate short term, probably a little less, but I think those same levels are still available. I think that it appears to me the economy is slowing down. People are borrowing a lot less. We have people delaying projects. We have people using their cash and their earnings to pay down loans. So, I think the ability of our profit is going to build up capital. So, there will be big potentials to buy back stock at good prices. Just like to see a little bit clear water before we go as much as we had.