Canadian Natural Resources Limited (NYSE:CNQ) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Scott Stauth: Sure. So it’s Scott here. And as you mentioned, the Horizon debottleneck project is nearing its end. We have one more installation to do tie-in in the — during the turnaround in Q2, and that will essentially wrap up that project. Results from that will allow us to go towards a non-turnaround year in 2025 and then a turnaround year in 2026. And so year-after-year, that how to look at turnaround every second year. I also talked earlier about the naphtha tailings project. So that had 6,300 barrels a day of SCO after 2027. And that’s in the early stages. And you guys will hear more from that as we go on and get towards near completion of that project. At Scotford, talked about the debottleneck project that will take place during — it will finish during the turnaround later on this year at Scotford. And so that will be adding 5,600 barrels per day net to Canadian Natural. And so those are the assets, and that’s the details on that production.

Neil Mehta: That’s helpful, Scott. And then just a follow-up, I just love your perspective on the macro. We’ve seen a lot of volatility in Syncrude prices and WCS prices, hopefully, things start to get better seasonally and also when TMX comes online. So maybe you can talk about your thoughts on the timing of TMX and how you think about both light and heavy crude diffs as we work our way through the year?

Scott Stauth: Yes, you bet. And so as we go forward here with TMX, we understand the timing of completion of the project and start up in Q2 of this year. And so you will see that help you alleviate the differentials on WCS also helped that see the SCO premium goes towards — back towards more of a premium than it’s been in the past few months. So both those products will benefit from TMX coming online.

Operator: Your next question is from Menno Hulshof from TD Cowen.

Menno Hulshof: I’ll start with a question on your thermal drilling program, which you talked about being front-end loaded. And just looking at your latest guidance, you point to most of those pads coming online in the first three quarters of 2025. Can you give us a sense of what the production ramp could look like for the middle of 2025? And maybe more specifically, could you give us a sense of what the production growth rate could look like on an exit 2025 over exit 2024 basis?

Scott Stauth: Yes, good question. I don’t have the exact profile of whatever will look like in 2025 on the thermal pads, but we had based on our discussions on the 2024 budget, we had looked at 2025 over 2024 at about 4%.

Menno Hulshof: Terrific. And then maybe I’ll just follow up with a sort of a refresher question on the inflationary outlook. I think it seems to me like everything is largely moderated. But are you seeing anything noteworthy as you look across the various line items within the cost structure? And do you still think that something in the range of 3% to 5% is still a reasonable expectation for this year?

Scott Stauth: Yes. I think largely the increases that we saw in the past have stabilized on a go-forward basis. And I believe we said this on the last call that we would expect 2024 to resemble mostly labor increases looking like in that 3% to 5% range. So you’re bang on.

Operator: Your next question is from Patrick O’Rourke from ATB Capital Markets.

Patrick O’Rourke: I guess you’ve covered a lot of ground here. But my first question is really with respect to the primary heavy oil results, which have been very, very impressive to date. And just wondering if you can speak to the potential scope of those assets and where it could go to? And then I wonder about potential with gas prices, you talked a little bit about flexibility here. But is this a specific asset where if gas prices remain low, you do have the flexibility to sort of increase the capital allocation?

Scott Stauth: Good question, Patrick. And yes, you’re bang on. It is an area where we can focus our capital allocation on. As you know and have seen, multilateral drilling programs have proven to be very effective. We have a very large land base in our primary heavy oil lands and multiple zones as well. So we’re able to really look at adding potential drilling in those areas, again, if gas prices are not favorable, as we originally planned, I could see us increasing potentially our multilateral primary heavy oil drilling program.

Patrick O’Rourke : Okay. And just a follow-up and sort of on the other side on the gas side of the equation because drills has become very topical. It’s been on a number of your peers’ conference calls recently. Just wondering because I would suspect that drill conditions would primarily impact the potential to operate in your Montney assets, how things sit today and sort of what the scope of your water reservoirs are relative to your ’24 program?

Scott Stauth: Yes. Good question. I think we’re in a pretty good shape overall here. We continue to monitor river levels, draw levels and all our access to water. Our teams are continually monitoring that and being prepared. But as it stands currently, our program not affected at this point. We’ll just continue to monitor it as it goes along throughout the year here.

Operator: Your next question is from John Royall from JPMorgan.

John Royall : So my first question is a bit hypothetical, and forgive me for that. But I’m just trying to understand how should we think about the framework on return of capital and the goalposts around capital returns going forward now that you’d hit the 100% level. And so let’s just say you did an acquisition and your net debt went above $10 billion as a result. Would you dial back to the 50% tier and keep your framework in place? Or was the framework sort of the thing of the past and you’re at 100% and it was just kind of a means to getting you there? Just trying to understand if this framework is more long-term or just kind of how you got to that 100%?