Canadian Natural Resources Limited (NYSE:CNQ) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Tim McKay : Yes. I mean the North Sea, I mean, we’ve always planned for COP and the abandonment to those platforms. If you recall, we have abandoned Murchison, we did Ninian North last year. So we’re quite good at handling those — that abandonment of these platforms. And so to me, it’s just all part of managing your portfolio. Every field asset does have a life — shelf life. So to me, we just continue on in the North Sea with that program. And really, it just gets smaller into there. Côte d’Ivoire and Baobab, Espoir, I mean they still have lots of opportunity here. We are planning another phase at both Espoir and Baobab. We’re just doing the work there, and they will probably be executed into the next year. But no, those assets, they still got lots of life left and it’s just a matter of doing it right.

Operator: Your next question comes from John Royall with JPMorgan.

John Royall : So can you talk about your thought process of getting a little more aggressive on the returns of capital here and moving to the $10 billion floor versus the $8 billion before, and then also removing the lower down on the 80% to 100%? And then on timing, I think Mark had said twice that it would be late this year on achieving $10 billion. I think in the 3Q call, you had said late ’23 to get to $8 billion. So I assume that’s more just about the scrip coming down, but just sort of if there are any other moving pieces in that bridge.

Mark Stainthorpe : John, it’s Mark. I’ll answer the second question first. It’s largely related to commodity prices, so there’s really nothing else that’s going on there. But second, on your question just around the change in the policy and kind of timing of that today. Every quarter, our Board reviews our free cash flow policy, and we look at our financial position, we look at it against a lot of metrics to ensure we’re doing the right things. With our debt level decreasing over $10 billion in the last couple of years, at the same time, we’ve been able to grow production and as Trevor talked about, increase our reserves. And Trevor mentioned it, remember that over 50% of the total proved reserves are high value, zero decline synthetic crude oil reserves, so a much more sustainable environment for free cash flow.

So when you put all that together, the Board determined that now $10 billion remains a very conservative debt level and provides that sort of ample flexibility and liquidity. And you can couple that in with why it migrates now to just 100% of the free cash flow.

John Royall : Great. And then sort of staying on the same lines, maybe you could speak a little bit about the definitional change for free cash flow available to distribute. And how — and maybe just — I’m trying to sort of understand how it — recognizing we have some other moving pieces that we just talked about, how it might affect kind of future returns to shareholders if you just sort of isolated it. So how much gross CapEx do you expect to be in this business once you get sort of one over the other side of your current growth program?

Lance Casson : In terms of capital?

John Royall : I’m just — I believe that’s the major moving pieces between the definition before and today.

Mark Stainthorpe : Yes, John, let me just — like when you look at the change in the definition, you really have to think about it, it’s really just a natural progression of the formula. If you’re going to have net debt at $10 billion and 100% of free cash flow being returned to shareholders, then capital needs to be funded from the free cash flow distributions. Otherwise, you would always fluctuate up and down from the $10 billion. So it’s really just a natural progression of how the formula needs to work.