Canadian National Railway Company (NYSE:CNI) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Tracy Robinson: Okay, thanks for that, Scott. David or who’s next?

Operator: Our next question comes from David Vernon from Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

David Vernon: Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. So, Doug, you know the RTM, the mid-single-digit RTM expectations, can you give us some sense of visibility into some of the bigger chunks and when they should start coming in? And we’re off to a little bit of a weaker start on the year. And I’m just trying to get a sense for — as you think of the ramp that you’ve got much more detail on if you could share with us any color on when we expect to see the inflection in the sequential volumes?

Doug MacDonald: Thanks, David. So, you know, I guess like the slide 12 is a great indicator, but we’re expecting a gradual ramp-up over the year and things like forest products, which we expect to see a gradual recovery in. It’s not going to be anything, it’s not going to be a straight-up arrow or anything. So we know that’s going to happen. Same with most of the products that are on there and a lot of those are going to tie right into the economy. That gradual recovery, that Tracy talked about, that’s what we’re expecting. So we’re going to see that. So you’re going to see more come in the back half than the front half, but we’re working with the customers to do that as quickly as possible. We talked about the two coal mines that are coming on, and those are both in H2 as well.

But with the international intermodal [Technical Difficulty] we’re seeing that perk up as of last December, which we just talked about. So we’re going to see that start to pull right away. And we’re expecting a gradual recovery in the domestic market.

David Vernon: All right. Thank you. And then the labor costs for accommodating the work rule changes, has that been sort of seasoned now or are we kind of running it at the right level as far as kind of staffing and resourcing? Or are we still kind of figuring out how to make the schedules work with the new hours of service regulations?

Doug MacDonald: Sorry, David, we’re only taking one per person.

David Vernon: I thought I’d give it a shot. Thanks, guys.

Doug MacDonald: Thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from Fadi Chamoun from BMO. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Fadi Chamoun: Yes. Thank you. Just one clarification. First, the comment around volume back to 2019 level, is that for total RTM or are you talking about intermodal specifically as well? And then my main question is really if you can extend kind of the outlook that you talked about, mid-single-digit RTM, like if we take that into revenues, what are the moving parts? Like from a mix perspective, I’m guessing pricing incremental to that five, that gets you high single digit. But what’s your thought on mix and how should we think about all these moving pieces from a revenue perspective?

Doug MacDonald: Well, those are long two questions, but I’ll just. So really the second one is the critical one, so we don’t forecast on the revenues, Fadi. But on the mid-single digits we expect that to carry out in our usual fashion. We expect the average car — dollars per car to apply. And I think you guys can do the math from there. But, yeah, we’re pretty happy with the forecast.

Fadi Chamoun: And with respect to the comment around 2019 level or pre-COVID level, is that an intermodal forecast for volume to be back to 2019 or is that total RPM?

Doug MacDonald: Yeah, I think that was your one question. And you can go to the investor relations team after the call for the other one.

Fadi Chamoun: Thanks.

Doug MacDonald: Thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Ravi Shanker: Thanks, everyone. Tracy or Doug, can you give us an update on the Falcon service, please? What’s the operational rollout been like after the first few months? What’s had been like selling the product to customers, et cetera?

Doug MacDonald: Okay, well, that’s a good question. We’ll have Derek start off on the operational side.

Derek Taylor: Yeah. Hey, good afternoon. No, it’s been a very exciting product we’ve had with our partners at the FXE and the Union Pacific. It is acting as one seamless service. We’re consistently delivering on the published transit time with our customers. And we look forward to continuing to grow that here in 2024. So solid momentum in 2023 and I see that partnership between the three of us only continuing to grow in ’24.

Doug MacDonald: Yeah. And on the revenues, listen, that we told everyone it’s going to be very slow growth of the truck market, and that’s what it is. But that’s okay, right? We’re expecting it, where both the UP and FXE and us are working hand in hand to grow that. The big bid cycle is really only starting up in Q1, where we’ll be going after truck business that’s out there. And we hope to see some solid growth moving into the rest of the year. Thanks for your question.

Ravi Shanker: Thank you.