Campbell Soup Company (NYSE:CPB) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Mark Clouse: Yes, I get it. So really, let me try to pull that apart into kind of the, I think, the two questions that you’re really asking. So first, on soup, I would say, I think our approach has been probably more strategic than simply deal a few things back, or do you just try to manage price gaps. I think there’s a more longer-term and strategic play on what we’re doing with soup that might be helpful to kind of hear how we’re thinking about it. But in essence, I think on soup right now, our strategy is really three things. The first one is to win — kind of we describe it as winning the fights that matter most, right? So when you think about areas like our condensed icons, which I talked about, up a full share point, or winning on Chunky within the ready-to-serve soup area where Chunky was up 8% in the quarter, almost 0.5 a share point.

Just as a sidebar, Chunky now has been up — over the last three years is up 35% as a brand and has grown over 2.5 share points within the world of soup. And that is absolutely paramount to our strategy of really winning that lunchtime occasion with a superior product that Chunky is living into and doing it among younger consumers, which is, again, where Chunky has been incredibly successful. I think the third kind of strategic fight is on Pacific, right? We now have supply back in place. This, again, we see as a highly differentiated brand, a leader in organic in the soup category, and that business was up 17% and grew share by 0.3 point in the quarter. And so as I think of those three areas, those are really important competitive battles that we see critical to winning.

And so far, we feel very good about how we’re performing in those spaces. The second strategy is really around driving — continuing to drive that long-term relevance of the category. And that’s really reflected heavily in both the versatility and the value that’s driven within soup. And so, cooking is a good proxy that we use for that. And the trends on cooking in home just continue to be incredibly powerful. Over 80% of meals are being prepared in home, that’s about 400 basis points higher than it was in a pre-COVID world. I will say what’s different than COVID now though is that the focus on those in-home meals revolve around both value and time to prepare. So the magic numbers on dinner are 20 minutes and the magic number on lunch is 10 minutes on speed, and that’s where our categories really land well, as well as being a great value.

And so, when I look at our cooking condensed business, right, as a subset where we’re growing share and outperforming the category, that’s exactly what we want to see, along with, of course, the strength in Chunky at lunchtime that I already talked about. So remember, at the end of the day, we’re over half of this category. So if the health of the category remains robust, we’re going to win in the long run, and that’s exactly what we’re trying to do in that second strategic area. And then the third area is really kind of holding the line on the balance, right? So these are not unimportant parts of our portfolio, but they definitely play a supporting role. And arguably, where we’ve had to make some trade-offs, has been in this area. Now, I just will say, when you describe it as being pleased, I don’t know that I would describe myself as pleased.

Look, any time we’re losing share in the category, I’m not happy about that. And so, I do think, as we think about the balance of the year, we want to make sure we continue to get that algorithm right on the balance of our portfolio, not overspending, but making sure that we stay competitive. That’s things like in the condensed world, sub-brands like Healthy Request or our Kids line or broth, right, more broadly. And so again, we’re going to really focus on value, continue to support those businesses appropriately to really kind of keep this algorithm in track with where we want to be. So that totally gives you a little better lay of the land of where we are in soup and why we feel good about the areas we’re focused on, while still being very vigilant on the areas that may not be as robust.

I think to your bigger question of — so therefore, do we imagine the beginning of more substantial shifts in the support on the business. I honestly think that when I look — and I can’t speak, obviously, always been dangerous speaking on behalf of the industry. But from a Campbell standpoint, I think what we’re doing is we’re being very pragmatic and thoughtful, right? This is about understanding the balance between ensuring that we don’t erode profitability in our businesses that we’re going to regret in the long term, while also recognizing that it’s paramount that we remain competitive and driving value. And so, although, I do think some categories may require a different level of support to achieve that goal, at the end of the day, when I look at our profile as a business, I think it’s very healthy, right?

I mean this — I’ll hope that I get a question on snacks. I’d love to talk about that with this quarter. But that’s a business that is just literally firing on all cylinders. And yes, there’s a component of reinvestment that’s happening, but it’s happening in support of really accelerating growth across the board. So no, I don’t think this is some harbinger of bad things to come. I really think, as I’ve said all along, right, if you go back three quarters, I talked about the fact that the balancing act here or the winners in this moment are going to be the ones that get this balancing act right, where you don’t overspend and erode profitability, while you don’t get too greedy and not invest properly in your brands. And that’s really what we’re trying to balance right now.

And I think Q2 is a great proof point of us I think doing that in a pretty compelling way.

Ken Goldman: Got it. Thank you.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Peter Galbo from Bank of America. Your line is open.

Peter Galbo: Hi, good morning all. Thanks for taking the question. Mark, I guess maybe just two questions, one more appointed question on kind of the guidance and then I’ll grant your wish on snacks. Just around the inflation guide for the year. I mean, I think you came in the first half at 16%. You’re talking to low teens. So if you can just talk about, kind of how you see the cadence over the back half of the year on inflation? And then maybe just broader around snacks. You did spend a good portion of the prepared remarks talking about, both pricing and volume growth in the segment and particularly share gains in salty. Just if you can maybe speak to the sustainability of how you see that, particularly around salty snacks would be helpful. Thanks very much.

Mark Clouse: Yes. Carrie, why don’t you take the inflation question and then I’ll hit the snacks one.

Carrie Anderson: Sure. We do expect core inflation to moderate through the year and consistent with my prepared remarks talking about low teens for the full year. So you’re right, the first half was about 16%. We did see some improvement as we were from Q1 to Q2 in a few categories that attenuated like flour, resins and meat and steel and even some of the transportation costs. As I think about the second half of the year, I would anticipate that, that will move in that 10% to 11% range on inflation. So for the year, again, you’re talking about low teens.

Mark Clouse: Yes. So let me take the — thank you for asking about snacks. Look, I think there’s — you sensed it in our remarks and certainly in my desire to want to talk about it. I do think Q2, in many ways, is a somewhat of a pivotal moment in kind of the validation of the strategy on snacking for us as a company. And that’s why I’m as happy or as positive with it as I am. It was a quarter where essentially, we delivered every element that you’d want to deliver, right? So top line was up 15%, in-market consumption up 17%, our power brands were growing at 20%. Those partner brands that have been flagging us are down to less than I think mid-single digits in the company are in the category from when their high was at 10%.

And margin grew at the same time, really driven by productivity and cost savings as much as pricing did a fairly good job of covering inflation. And that profile then resulted in us being the fastest-growing share player in cookie cracker and in salty among major branded players. And that’s exactly where I think this portfolio should be, right? Growing top line. We also grew units and unit share on those businesses, and it was broad-based, right? This wasn’t just one brand. If you go through the last couple of years, as we kind of got the ship right, we had some brands up, some down. It was never a period where you could really look across the portfolio and go, gosh, what can this thing do when everything is firing? And this quarter was a great example.

And even as you roll into the more recent Nielsen and IRI data, you see that momentum just continuing to go forward. And it really is a combination of great marketing support, the right innovation and then a supply chain that’s stepping up to meet that growing and expanding demand. And that’s exactly what we want working. And again, each of the brands have kind of a unique story, but Goldfish, up 22% in the quarter, up over 30% over the last three years, growing share, almost now a $1 billion brand and driven by a really smart strategy of expanding the appeal of the product between both families with kids and families with out of kids. Our innovation is working extremely well. The limited time offer flavors has grabbed all the buzz that you’d want it to.

And I think it’s also maintaining a great value, right? When you think about the snacking world and kind of better-for-you snacking as you asked, right, Goldfish really does live in this unique permissible space of being a bit premium but also a bit better. And that’s really a good description of our whole portfolio. And that’s why I love it so much is because the differentiated nature of these brands, whether you’re in salty or whether you’re in bakery, just position us for the long-term, I think, in a really great way. And again, Kettle, cookies, Lance, even Late July, both of which have been brands that have been a little bit under the gun because of supply chain were up 19% and 27%, respectively. Lance grew almost three share points and Late July grew over four share points.

So these are businesses that now we’ve got the firepower behind it. Snack factory, another kind of sleeping giant in the portfolio sitting in the deli growing 19% and grew four share points this quarter. I mean these are extraordinary numbers, and I’m hopeful that what it will begin to do is really solidify what we’ve been talking about, which is when we think about the world of snacking, we believe we’ve got an advantaged portfolio, and we’re going to be an extremely formidable competitor as we go forward.