Camden Property Trust (NYSE:CPT) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Ric Campo: Yes. And Austin, just to put a number on the Alex’s point about the move outs to purchase homes, we were about 11% for the last quarter, but as we roll that, that number forward into July, it actually dropped to single digits at 9.8%. We haven’t seen single-digit move outs to purchase homes since you’d have to go back to the great financial crisis. We had a couple of quarters in there where we were a single digits on that metric. And we hit that again in July. So that trend continues for sure.

Operator: Our next question will come from Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI. You may now go ahead.

Steve Sakwa: Yes. Thanks. Good morning. I just was wondering if you could provide a little bit more color on the kind of monthly trends on the new lease rates and kind of on the signings, just to give us a sense for the trend, April, May, June and into July. And I guess with delivery set to ramp over the next four quarters, I’m just wondering, do you expect new leases at all to go negative in say, the next four quarters?

Alex Jessett: Yes. So if you look at the trend, obviously for the second half of the year, we told you new leases would be up 1.5%, renewals up 5%, for a blended 3.25%. At this point in time, we’re heading into our peak leasing periods, and so it’s going to follow some normal seasonalities over the next couple of months. And then obviously coming back down into the fourth quarter. In terms of rents going negative, if you’re just looking at sequential month-over-month, you do typically see some negative typically in November and December, and that’s what we are anticipating. So that being a decline going from October to November to December. And as I said, that’s just typical seasonal patterns.

Steve Sakwa: Thanks.

Operator: Our next question will come from Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho. You may now go ahead.

Haendel St. Juste: Hey there, thanks for taking the question. A couple here. First, what’s the portfolio loss to lease overall and where is it highest and lowest amongst your core markets?

Ric Campo: Yes. So our overall loss to lease is in the sort of 2% to 3% range. The lowest loss to lease is Phoenix, which is teetering right on the edge of flat loss to lease to a slight gain to lease. And in our highest would actually be San Diego Inland Empire followed by Denver and Nashville.

Haendel St. Juste:

where does that lie:

Ric Campo: Yes. So Houston is right around a 1%. Atlanta is right around call it 0.5%. And then D.C. is actually pretty high, it’s right around sort of mid-4s.

Haendel St. Juste: Okay. Thanks. And so when I think about the loss to lease, and then you mentioned the 3.25% blended plan expectations back half a year, ballpark, what does that imply for a 2024 earning?

Ric Campo: Yes, right around 1.8%. So if we hit our numbers for the rest of the year getting to December of 2023 that should be 1.8% RNN.

Haendel St. Juste: Thank you.

Operator: Our next question will come from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets. You may now go ahead.

John Kim: Thanks, and happy birthday, everyone. A question on your same-store revenue guidance – on your same-store revenue guidance that you’ve maintained, it sounds like the bad debt is coming in better than expected with your guidance for the year 20 basis points lower than prior. But when you isolated leases signed in June, it looks like it decelerated from 4.8% in made about 3.4%, and I was wondering if that deceleration had come in steeper than you had thought?

Alex Jessett: No. I mean, right now we are progressing exactly as we had anticipated. Remember also that we did increase guidance in the first quarter. But so as compared to what we thought when we last increased guidance everything is progressing as we expected.

John Kim: Okay. And then, Alex, you mentioned that you already anticipated some of the Texas reduction in taxes, I think at nearly you discussed Texas and Florida as potential states, and just an update on Florida, if that was already factored into your guidance of the year.

Alex Jessett: Yes. So Florida for us, we are anticipating I’ll just sort of do it by market. Tampa is up 10%, Orlando is up 10%, and South Florida is up 7%. So obviously some of our higher growth markets in terms of taxes, but that compares to Texas, which we think our total tax number is going to be up 1.4%.

John Kim: So the reduction in millage rates are not anticipated in Florida?