Calumet, Inc. (CLMT): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Calumet, Inc. on Stock’s Substack’s by Stock Forester. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CLMT. Calumet, Inc.’s share was trading at $19.52 as of December 2nd. CLMT’s trailing and forward P/E were 23.06 and 11.35 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Calumet (CLMT) operates in specialty hydrocarbons and renewable fuels, with three core segments: Specialties, Performance Brands, and Montana Renewables (MRL). Its Specialties platform produces high-purity white oils, waxes, esters, and lubricants sold into niche regulated markets, while Performance Brands houses consumer products like Royal Purple and TruFuel. MRL, the key growth engine, produces renewable diesel (RD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), with a strategic pivot toward SAF.

Following its 2024 conversion to a C-Corp, the company has simplified its structure and broadened ownership. Recent developments have strengthened the balance sheet—MRL secured a $1.44 billion DOE-guaranteed loan in early 2025, retiring high-cost debt and funding expansion, saving roughly $80 million annually. The $110 million Royal Purple Industrial sale and $120 million Shreveport refinancing freed up cash to redeem part of the 2026 notes, now reduced to about $125 million. Regulatory relief from EPA Small Refinery Exemptions slashed RINs liabilities from 396 million to 89 million, improving liquidity and margins.

Management reaffirmed plans to ramp MaxSAF to 120–150 million gallons annually by mid-2026 with modest capex, supported by Shell offtake agreements and PTC monetisation. Near term, deleveraging and execution on SAF scaling remain key catalysts, with the company targeting $800 million in restricted group debt. Risks include weaker RD margins, slower SAF adoption, and refinancing challenges, but the strategic progress, regulatory tailwinds, and debt reduction position Calumet for significant upside. A base valuation of $47 per share implies over 130% upside, with a bullish case approaching $80 if execution and market conditions align.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) by Zerosumgame33 in April 2025, which highlighted margin recovery in biodiesel and Montana Renewables’ cost advantage. The company’s stock has appreciated approximately 96.97% since our coverage as DOE funding and regulatory relief improved liquidity. The thesis still stands as SAF growth accelerates. Stock Forester shares a similar view but emphasizes deleveraging and regulatory catalysts.

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Disclosure: None.