Business First Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:BFST) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Graham Dick: I thought you had said before that there was 6% to 8% growth in the first quarter. So okay, that’s helpful just throughout the year then.

Greg Robertson: Correct.

Jude Melville: Yes. I’d say that if you look at the — and specifically, that’s on that — the outlook reflects the core noninterest expense base in Q4. So if you look at that range of 6% to 8% growth, annualize that, that’s kind of the full year number to target. And so if you want to make some assumptions in terms of stair stepping to that full year number, that 6% to 8% is reflective of the actual full year expense number. Just you make your assumption on how you expect to get there on a full year basis, but that is what that reflects.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Michael Rose from Raymond James.

Michael Rose : Maybe just following up on some of the deposit questions that have been asked. Can you just remind us, what your assumptions are for the ability to reduce deposit costs, assuming we do get a couple of rate cuts how much of your deposits are indexed. What are your assumptions around the ability to bring down costs and savings and money market accounts? And I don’t know if this was asked, but where you’d expect NIB mix to kind of stabilize, I think you — the mix this quarter was a little bit greater than kind of the 100 to 200 basis points that you guys had talked about last quarter. So just trying to appreciate the ability to kind of offset or what the ability is to bring that deposit costs as rates hopefully fall with a couple of rate cuts here?

Greg Robertson: The deposit cost, I think we — today, we’ve increased our noninterest-bearing, and I’ll start out and let Matt kind of follow-up. Noninterest-bearing deposits moved to 25% right at the end of the year. And we think forecasting — this is tough in this space over the last 12-months for sure. But we think 2024, that should settle in at around 23%. So obviously, from a funding cost standpoint, that is the big catalyst or need mover. If we do better than that, obviously that helps us a whole lot. As far as the money markets I spoke of, we have about $1.4 billion of those accounts on deposit, and we would be able to move that with downward rate movements. And I’ll let Matt talk about the beta assumptions for each of those categories.

But we do think — and that’s one of the reasons why I mentioned it earlier that we’ve been focused really hard on moving a lot of those accounts into that money market area. So as far as forecast next year for every 25 basis points, Matt?

Matthew Sealy: So the Q4 total interest-bearing cycle-to-date is about 62%. That includes a little bit lower cost core interest-bearing deposits. So if we look at the actual repricing opportunity with a rate cut scenario. The higher cost deposit base, we’re assuming north of a 70% plus beta. And on the more core lower cost deposit base. We’re assuming more like a 60% beta assumption on those. And I would say that looking ahead for 2024, the base assumption that we’re making is that we don’t get a dramatic change in interest rates. And I do think that there is some opportunity to reprice the deposits down. But I would say that it’s probably going to move somewhat in tandem with some portion of the increase that we saw in the betas in 2023, that would translate to the base deposits that are going to mature and are indexed some percentage of that — 24% increase year-over-year.

I don’t know if it’s 20% or 15%. But I think a chunk of that beta would actually translate through and we would recognize anywhere from the 60% beta on the downside of any rate cuts against that portfolio, that Greg had just mentioned.

Michael Rose: I think most of my other questions have been asked and answered, but I did notice the loan loss reserve ratio did come down a little bit credit remains really good for you guys. You guys are in great markets. Anything on the horizon because we are starting to see some of your peers show some normalization. Anything on the horizon that you guys are taking a closer look at, and I’m sorry if I missed it, but what was the change in criticized and/or classified balances this quarter?