Burford Capital Limited (BUR) Share Price Affected by YPF Judgment Against Argentina

Alphyn Capital Management, an investment management firm, released its third-quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The Master Account of the fund returned 3.0% net in the third quarter compared to 8.1% for the S&P 500 Index. As of the third quarter of 2025, the top ten holdings accounted for approximately 68% of the portfolio, and approximately 17% of the portfolio was held in cash. The market narrative was dominated by AI advancements, credit cycles, and geopolitical uncertainty in the quarter. The firm focuses on compound value through disciplined reinvestment and operational excellence. In addition, please check the fund’s top five holdings to know its best picks in 2025.

In its third-quarter 2025 investor letter, Alphyn Capital Management highlighted stocks such as Burford Capital Limited (NYSE:BUR). Burford Capital Limited (NYSE:BUR) offers legal finance products and services. The one-month return of Burford Capital Limited (NYSE:BUR) was -6.77%, and its shares lost 17.23% of their value over the last 52 weeks. On October 27, 2025, Burford Capital Limited (NYSE:BUR) stock closed at $11.29 per share, with a market capitalization of $2.47 billion.

Alphyn Capital Management stated the following regarding Burford Capital Limited (NYSE:BUR) in its third quarter 2025 investor letter:

“Burford Capital Limited’s (NYSE:BUR) share price performance remains dominated by the $16 billion YPF judgment against Argentina. In July, US District Judge Preska issued a “turnover order” directing Argentina to hand over its controlling YPF stake to Burford’s clients. This was initially viewed as a major win and the strongest collection tool Burford had to enforce its judgment. However, the US Department of Justice (DOJ), representing the US government, filed an amicus curiae brief arguing that seizing a sovereign nation’s controlling stake in its primary state-owned enterprise would violate principles of sovereign immunity. In August, the US Second Circuit Court of Appeals granted Argentina’s request to stay Judge Preska’s order.

As a result, the main appeal has oral arguments scheduled for October 29, with a decision anticipated by mid-2026. Factoring in further appeals, the likely earliest conclusion to the US litigation is 2027, and potentially longer if the Supreme Court takes up the case. Unsurprisingly, these developments have weighed on the share price. Argentina is expending considerable resources to fight the case, aiming to delay and degrade the judgment to force a deeply discounted negotiated settlement. The deciding factors will be the point at which Argentina’s need for international market access outweighs the political cost of paying, and Burford’s ability to successfully execute enforcement.

In the meantime, Burford’s underlying portfolio is maturing, and demand for Burford’s capital remains robust. Group-wide new commitments reached $1.1 billion in the first nine months of 2025, and Q3 deployments totaled $315 million, reflecting continued investment discipline. In my view, Burford’s current share price reflects little to no value for the YPF claim. The core business, though lumpy, should continue to grow, with the YPF outcome representing a “free option” for investors.”

Burford Capital (BUR) Falls 7.8% as Traders Take Profits

Burford Capital Limited (NYSE:BUR) is not on our list of 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. According to our database, 32 hedge fund portfolios held Burford Capital Limited (NYSE:BUR) at the end of the second quarter, up from 31 in the previous quarter.  While we acknowledge the risk and potential of Burford Capital Limited (NYSE:BUR) as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than Burford Capital Limited (NYSE:BUR) and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

In another article, we covered Burford Capital Limited (NYSE:BUR) and shared Greenhaven Road Capital’s views on the company in the previous quarter. In addition, please check out our hedge fund investor letters Q3 2025 page for more investor letters from hedge funds and other leading investors.

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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.