Burford Capital Limited (BUR): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Burford Capital Limited on TripleS Special Situations’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on BUR. Burford Capital Limited’s share was trading at $9.32 as of December 2nd. BUR’s trailing and forward P/E were 23.93 and 9.68 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Burford Capital Limited provides legal finance products and services worldwide and operates in two segments, Principal Finance, and Asset Management and Other Services. Burford Capital’s investment in the Argentina-YPF litigation represents one of the most dramatic special situations in recent years. The company purchased distressed claims from bankrupt Petersen Energía for roughly €15 million, positioning itself to potentially collect a staggering 37,000% return.

The dispute stems from Argentina’s 2012 expropriation of 51% of YPF shares from Repsol, which bypassed the tender offer obligations stipulated in YPF’s corporate bylaws. Petersen, heavily leveraged through Repsol dividends, went bankrupt, allowing Burford to acquire the litigation claims at a deep discount.

The plaintiffs argue Argentina breached a contractual obligation to make a tender offer to minority shareholders, while Argentina contends that its sovereign expropriation law supersedes private contractual claims and that the case belongs in Argentine courts. The Second Circuit oral argument highlighted judicial skepticism over U.S. courts adjudicating complex questions of Argentine public law, creating uncertainty about forum and liability. Even if liability is affirmed, damages remain highly contested, with potential reductions in billions due to issues like peso-denominated shares, interest rates, and the Judgment Day rule.

While the appellate panel questioned aspects of the plaintiffs’ case, historical precedent—including Argentina’s NYSE listing, ADR structure, and a February 2012 internal memo calculating compliance costs—supports Burford’s position. The outcome could range from a full affirmation with $18 billion in damages to a dismissal on forum non conveniens grounds, sending the case to Argentina.

Despite short-term volatility, Burford shares currently trade as if the case is dead, creating a potential opportunity for investors if the court affirms liability or partially upholds damages. The decision is expected within 6–12 months, and even a reduced award would represent a substantial return relative to Burford’s initial investment.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Burford Capital Limited by Coughlin Capital in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s leadership in litigation finance, strong returns, and scalable dual-segment model. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately by 34.73% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as Burford’s long-term growth remains intact. TripleS Special Situations shares a similar focus but emphasizes the Argentina-YPF litigation.

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Disclosure: None.