Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Brown-Forman Corporation on Jon’s Thoughts’s Substack by Jon Chu. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on BF-B. Brown-Forman Corporation’s share was trading at $27.64 as of September 24th. BF-B’s trailing and forward P/E were 15.44 and 16.86 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Brown-Forman (BF) has experienced a dramatic shift in market perception over the past decade. Once regarded as a high-quality company, the stock routinely traded above 30x earnings, with investors justifying the premium based on its stability and reliable cash flow, often described as “quality at a fair price” despite limited growth. Today, BF trades at roughly 15x earnings, and the narrative has flipped to one of skepticism and caution, highlighting challenges such as tariffs and broader concerns about changing consumer habits, including the idea that alcohol consumption may decline over time.

Despite the negative sentiment, the fundamentals appear relatively stable, with a consistent earnings stream and an enduring consumer base. The current valuation represents one of the lowest multiples for the company in the past decade, presenting an opportunity to access a historically resilient business at an attractive price point. While external headwinds and market narratives may dominate headlines, the underlying consumption of alcohol is likely to remain steady, supporting the company’s cash flows and long-term viability. This makes BF an interesting candidate for closer observation, as the disconnect between market narrative and fundamental stability could create a favorable risk/reward profile.

For investors willing to look past short-term pessimism, Brown-Forman offers a potential opportunity to invest in a stable, cash-generative company at a historically discounted valuation, with limited downside and the potential for rerating should sentiment improve. Continuous monitoring is warranted to track both operational performance and market perception shifts that could unlock further upside.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B) by Oliver | MMMT Wealth in March 2025, which highlighted the company’s strong brands, resilient net income growth, and long-standing dividend consistency despite tariff and inventory concerns. The stock has depreciated approximately 23% since coverage. The thesis still stands as fundamentals remain stable. Jon Chu shares a similar view but emphasizes the shift in market narrative and historically low valuation as a potential opportunity.

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Disclosure: None.