British American Tobacco p.l.c. (NYSE:BTI) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Richard Felton: Good morning, Jack. Good morning, Tad. My first question is a follow-up on U.S. combustibles and your relative performance. So the numbers you’ve given in your prepared remarks, 10% industry decline and the 15.5% decline in your portfolio, is on a full year basis. Now if I think about the second half specifically, it does look like that gap versus the market has got a little bit larger. So my question is, what has sort of driven that? Where are you seeing the relative weakness in your portfolio? And what actions are you taking to narrow that gap into 2023? That’s the first question.

Tadeu Marroco: Just to make the more clearly because it’s difficult to analyze by half because there were a lot of movements in the U.S. We mentioned the unwind of stocks. But remember that in the first half of 2022, we also introduced our TAU system. We’ve rolled out the TAU system. So we had to build up stocks just before that. So your first — the unwind of stocks in reality materialized more towards the second half of the year. So that’s why you see a different picture in the second half as compared with the first. And this also explained the reason why we expect to be more second weighted this year because we are lapping our first half of last year that was impacted by the stock build from the introduction of the TAU system in the U.S. So I just want to make this point clearly.

In terms of the — as the macro became much more visible throughout the second half of the year, we start taking commercial initiatives related to that. As we presented in the presentation, we have much more been — much more active in terms of revenue growth management, granular in terms of pricing decisions at state level, channel levels. We have been laddering now in different price points. So we are ending the year to in a much more competitive basis. And we saw that in terms of our share performance in Q4 compared with Q3, where we see some stabilization of that. And we continue this trend to grow in ’23 as we approach ’23.

Jack Bowles: In the big players, not in the low, I mean, you saw that we defended share much better than competition, and we have a pricing environment. Where you always have to remember that the pricing that has been taken by the industry even in Q3, Q4 was far less than CPGs in general, yes. So we had a much more linear pricing activity in the second half of the year than CPGs. That give us some runway in terms of pricing in 2023. So I think that the overall market has suffered in terms of size. The consumers — we always speak about the price of oil, but it’s not only the disposable income. It’s also the Americans go less to the shops. And if they go less to the shops with the product that they buy every day or every second day, then you have a bit of reduction in terms of the total market.

But I think that with the performance that we have in premium where we’re growing and the down trading that has been very reasonable in that environment, and the price elasticity at 0.4 and the portfolio that we have. I’m confident on the U.S. for 2023, but it’s going to be more geared towards the second half or the stock issues and for the recovery of the macros moving forward. And always remember, I think that the point I was made before is very important, Total Nicotine. And in Total Nicotine, including e-cigarettes, you see that the performance is extremely good in that environment. Cost of access to e-cigarettes is lower for consumers in the U.S. than in cigarettes. So I’m confident.

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