Borr Drilling Limited (BORR): A Bull Case Theory 

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We came across a bullish thesis on Borr Drilling Limited on Hidden Market Gems’s Substack by Hidden Market Gems and Joshua. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on BORR. Borr Drilling Limited’s share was trading at $2.8600 as of October 3rd. BORR’s trailing and forward P/E were 12.73 and 28.17 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Borr Drilling, headquartered in Bermuda with operations run from Norway, has established itself as a focused player in the offshore drilling market by maintaining a fleet of 24 modern premium jack-up rigs, averaging just three years in age. This fleet is among the youngest globally, giving the company a cost and reliability advantage in an industry where half the rigs are over 30 years old. After a decade of underinvestment in offshore rigs, rising oil demand and renewed project sanctions have tightened supply, creating a favorable environment for Borr.

In Q2 2025, the company reported $267.7 million in revenue, up 24% quarter-over-quarter, with EBITDA of $133 million (+39% QoQ) and a net profit of $35 million, reflecting nearly full utilization both technically and economically. With a market capitalization of approximately $600 million and expected 2025 EBITDA of $460–470 million, the stock is trading at less than 2× EV/EBITDA ex-debt, highlighting significant upside potential.

Borr’s advantage stems from its young, standardized fleet that lowers operating costs and attracts major clients for multi-year contracts. Entry barriers are high, with new rigs costing $250–300 million and not expected until 2027–2028, creating a temporary but meaningful moat. Key catalysts include contract repricing as older rigs reset to higher dayrates, deleveraging with cash flow reducing over $2 billion in gross debt, and scarcity-driven pricing power in the current tight market.

While the offshore cycle is inherently volatile and ESG pressures may limit multiples, Borr’s combination of high utilization, premium positioning, and structural supply shortage positions it as an overlooked, high-torque equity. In the bull case, continued strong dayrates and deleveraging could drive the equity to two- to threefold upside, making Borr Drilling a compelling asymmetric investment opportunity.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Transocean Ltd. (RIG) by Unemployed Value Degen in February 2025, which highlighted the company’s recovery in offshore drilling demand, rising revenues and EBITDA, and a strong contract backlog. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 5.64% since our coverage. Hidden Market Gems and Joshua share a similar focus but emphasize Borr Drilling’s young fleet and scarcity-driven pricing as key catalysts, offering a different perspective on upside in the same industry.

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