Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Booking Holdings Inc. on Business Model Mastery’s Substack by The Antifragile Investor. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on BKNG. Booking Holdings Inc.’s share was trading at $5,454.81 as of September 29th. BKNG’s trailing and forward P/E were 38.67 and 21.83 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Booking Holdings (BKNG) operates an asset-light marketplace model, connecting travelers and accommodation providers while collecting 10–20% commissions per booking. This structure delivers high margins and scalability across its global platform, which spans 220+ countries and offers over 28 million listings. The company benefits from powerful network effects, as more hotels attract more travelers and vice versa, creating a self-reinforcing moat that makes it difficult for rivals to penetrate once critical mass is reached in a market.

While Expedia leads in the U.S., Booking dominates Europe and Asia and is the global leader in room nights booked. Its diversification into vacation rentals strengthens its appeal as a one-stop solution, competing effectively with Airbnb by offering homes, apartments, and hotels within a single platform. Verified guest reviews deepen customer trust and host dependence, locking reputations within Booking’s ecosystem and reinforcing loyalty. The company’s financial model is enhanced by negative working capital, as traveler payments are collected upfront while hotels are paid later, generating a significant cash float that supports free cash flow.

Booking’s marketing scale, particularly its status as one of Google’s largest advertisers, ensures it captures high-intent demand, though it also creates reliance on Google. The business enjoys strong operating margins exceeding 30% in good years, driven by minimal incremental costs on new bookings. Key risks include Google’s encroachment into travel, competition from Airbnb and Expedia, and regulatory pressures, but Booking counters with loyalty programs, global liquidity, and adaptability. Overall, Booking represents the leading global online travel agency, underpinned by scale, trust, and cash generation.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) by Jimmy Investor in April 2025, which highlighted the global travel rebound, OTA market growth, and Booking’s strong $7.8 billion free cash flow. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately 19% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as Booking maintains scale and profitability. The Antifragile Investor shares a similar view but emphasizes network effects and cash flow advantages.

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Disclosure: None.