BOK Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:BOKF) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Marc Maun: Yes, those are the two factors. I mean, we’re just trying to maximize shareholder value with how we do that and price is a factor and to the extent that our outlook is for strong organic growth opportunities to be present over the couple of quarters. We want to make sure that we’ve got sufficient wherewithal to support that. And that’s obviously first in the pecking order, but that’s kind of how we do the calculus.

Stacy Kymes : Jared, before the kind of first quarter in the industry, the most common question was what are you going to do with all your excess capital? So we obviously, think that long-term we probably do have a little bit of excess capital to deploy share buybacks are part of that, but we’re being a little bit careful maybe in this environment at least for the near term.

Jared Shaw : Okay. And I guess, maybe just circling back on the deposits. In terms of your expectation for beta, how should we be thinking about cumulative beta going through with the potential or the expectation for one more hike?

Marty Grunst : Yes. We do think that cumulative beta does keep moving up here. We were at 54% this quarter. And our assumption that’s within our guide is that that crossed the 60% and gets up into the 63%, 64% territory by the end of the year.

Marc Maun : Yes. I would agree with Marty, but I think the cumulative beta over the life of the cycle is going to be kind of where we said it was going to be all along somewhere in that 40% to 50% range.

Jared Shaw : Thanks very much.

Operator: Our next question comes from Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Jon Arfstrom : Thanks. Good morning.

Stacy Kymes : Good morning, Jon.

Jon Arfstrom : Maybe a question for you, Marty. When I do the math on the margin, it seems like there’s a little bit of pressure coming to maybe not that material. Can you confirm that? Just how much pressure do you think is ahead in the net interest margin? And what do you think the cadence might look like for the next couple of quarters assuming the Fed is done today?

Marty Grunst : Yes, that’s right. And that is our base assumption. And maybe the best way to walk through that is to talk through net interest revenue kind of what the pluses and minuses are from here, because like June net interest revenue for the month of June was $106 million. And so if you kind of start from that run rate loan growth is going to be a plus obviously. Bond portfolio repricing is going to be a plus. In Q2, we saw $420 million of principal cash flows run off at about a 278 runoff yield and we’re reinvesting that around 485 for the second quarter. And you’ll see that trend continue through future quarters. And even within the fixed rate part of the loan portfolio that small you’ve got the same dynamic going on there that provides lift and we’ll continue to provide lift.

The deposit betas we’re at 54 cumulative right now. That will continue to bleed up here as you get out of the rate hike and then you just get a little bit of residual carry forward. The July rate hike probably doesn’t really independently move the needle that much. And then as you were talking about before the DDA mix shift that’s really slowed down a fair amount. So that impact gets a lot smaller. So if you look at those pieces the DDA and the deposit reprice are declining effects that are getting close to pending running their course here. And then the loan growth is a growing effect over time and the bond portfolio reprice. It’s a declining effect over time but it lasts a while. So that kind of gives you a little bit of color around how that plays out over the next couple of quarters.